IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cte/whrepe/50135.html

Accounting for the Reversal of Fortune: Spain and Britain, 1501-1800

Author

Listed:
  • Prados de la Escosura, Leandro

Abstract

Recent research confirms that per capita income in early modern Spain improved onlymarginally overall, while also revealing sustained growth through much of the sixteenth and eighteenth centuries, alongside a continued decline from the late sixteenth to the midseventeenth centuries. These phases shaped Spain's relative position within Western Europe and contributed to the Reversal of Fortune. This paper finds that labour productivity, proxied by output per working-age population, improved during the first three-quarters of the sixteenth century, then declined until the mid-seventeenth century, and that thesubsequent recovery never reached the levels of the 1570s. What caused these episodes of growth and decline: changes in resource endowments or in the efficiency of their use? Phases of labour productivity growth were often driven by factor intensity, but efficiency losses underpinned periods of stagnation or decline, which contradicts the stylised view that factor intensity is the main driver of labour productivity in a pre-industrial economy. Compared with Great Britain, Spain showed an inverse, divergent pattern, moving from similar levels to less than half of Britain's by 1800. Efficiency was the main driver of the widening gap. Ingenuity appears, therefore, to be the driving force behind the Reversal of Fortune.

Suggested Citation

  • Prados de la Escosura, Leandro, 2026. "Accounting for the Reversal of Fortune: Spain and Britain, 1501-1800," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 50135, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:50135
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://e-archivo.uc3m.es/rest/api/core/bitstreams/1248bfe6-f84f-42c8-bde3-a6c08e20aee4/content
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Ventura, Gustavo & Yao, Wen, 2025. "The wealth of working nations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    2. Carlos Santiago-Caballero, 2013. "The Rain in Spain? Climate versus urban demand as causes of agricultural stagnation in eighteenth-century Spain," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(4), pages 452-470, November.
    3. Broadberry, Stephen & de Pleijt, Alexandra M., 2021. "Capital and Economic Growth in Britain, 1270-1870: Preliminary findings," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 546, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    4. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    5. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    6. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 1999. "Productivity Growth and Factor Prices in East Asia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 133-138, May.
    7. Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos & Chamley, Christophe, 2016. "Philip Ii Against The Cortes And The Credit Freeze Of 1575-1577," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 351-382, December.
    8. Antras, Pol & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 52-77, January.
    9. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 1998. "Time and Work in Eighteenth-Century London," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 58(1), pages 29-58, March.
    10. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "Gifts of Mars: Warfare and Europe's Early Rise to Riches," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(4), pages 165-186, Fall.
    11. Marianne Ward & John Devereux, 2021. "New Income Comparisons for the late Nineteenth and Early Twentieth Century," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(1), pages 222-247, March.
    12. Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2001. "The Longest Years: New Estimates Of Labor Input In England, 1760–1830," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 1065-1082, December.
    13. C. Knick Harley, 1998. "Cotton Textile Prices and the Industrial Revolution," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 51(1), pages 49-83, February.
    14. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2002. "What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence From the Factor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 502-526, June.
    15. Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos & Chamley, Christophe, 2016. "Philip Ii Against The Cortes And The Credit Freeze Of 1575-1577," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(3), pages 351-382, December.
    16. Dopico, Fausto & Rowland, Robert, 1990. "Demografia del censo de Floridablanca. Una aproximacion," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(3), pages 591-618, December.
    17. Ward, Marianne & Devereux, John, 2003. "Measuring British Decline: Direct Versus Long-Span Income Measures," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 63(3), pages 826-851, September.
    18. Gregory Clark, 2010. "The macroeconomic aggregates for England, 1209–2008," Research in Economic History, in: Research in Economic History, pages 51-140, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    19. Kravis, Irving B, 1984. "Comparative Studies of National Incomes and Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(1), pages 1-39, March.
    20. Amarilla, Jose A. Sebastian, 1990. "La renta de la tierra en Leon durante la Edad Moderna. Primeros resultados y algunas reflexiones a partir de fuentes monasticas," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(1), pages 53-80, March.
    21. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Tamás Vonyó & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2021. "Accounting For Growth In History," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 655-669, July.
    2. Daniel Gallardo-Albarrán, 2024. "Capital, Productivity, and Human Welfare Since 1870," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 2023-2048, Springer.
    3. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    4. Jesus Felipe & John McCombie & Aashish Mehta, 2025. "Is anything left of the debate about the sources of growth in East Asia 30 years later? A critical survey," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 247-280, April.
    5. Malanima, Paolo, 2025. "Before modern growth. Italy’s GDP 1660-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-162.
    6. Carlos Álvarez-Nogal & Leandro Prados De La Escosura, 2013. "The rise and fall of Spain (1270–1850)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(1), pages 1-37, February.
    7. Antras, Pol & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 52-77, January.
    8. Hiau Looi Kee, 2005. "Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Evidence for Hong Kong's Aggregate Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 51-81, March.
    9. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    10. Shu-Shiuan Lu, 2012. "East Asian growth experience revisited from the perspective of a neoclassical model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 359-376, July.
    11. Stephen Broadberry, 2024. "British Economic Growth and Development," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Michael Haupert (ed.), Handbook of Cliometrics, edition 3, pages 951-986, Springer.
    12. Akihiko Ikeda, 2020. "Learning-by-doing and business cycles in emerging economies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(3), pages 611-631, August.
    13. Chia-Hung Sun, 2005. "Productivity growth in East Asian manufacturing: a fading miracle or measurement problem?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 1-19.
    14. Ku-Hsieh Chen & Hao-Yen Yang, 2011. "A cross-country comparison of productivity growth using the generalised metafrontier Malmquist productivity index: with application to banking industries in Taiwan and China," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 197-212, June.
    15. Ho, Chi Pui, 2016. "Industrious Selection: Explaining Five Revolutions and Two Divergences in Eurasian Economic History within a Unified Growth Framework," MPRA Paper 73862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Broadberry, Stephen, 2021. "Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15936, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    17. Nazrul Islam & Erbiao Dai & Hiroshi Sakamoto, 2006. "Role of TFP in China's Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 127-159, June.
    18. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    19. Lopez-Uribe, Maria del Pilar & Castells-Quintana, David & McDermott, Thomas K. J., 2017. "Geography, institutions and development: a review ofthe long-run impacts of climate change," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 65147, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Ming Zhang & Wensheng Wang & Xialing Sun, 2023. "Measurement and Multiple Decomposition of Total Factor Productivity Growth in China’s Coal Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-19, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • N13 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:whrepe:50135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ana Poveda (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/instituto_figuerola .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.