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Greed and grievance in civil wars

Author

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler

Abstract

We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. We test a `greed’ theory focusing on the ability to finance rebellion, against a `grievance’ theory focusing on ethnic and religious divisions, political repression and inequality. We find that greed considerably outperforms grievance. Consistent with the greed theory, both dependence upon primary commodity exports and a large diaspora substantially increase the risk of conflict. Inconsistent with the grievance theory, greater ethnic and religious diversity reduce the risk of conflict. The results are robust to correction for outliers, alternative variable definition, and variations in estimation method.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2002. "Greed and grievance in civil wars," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-01, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2002-01
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    File URL: http://www.csae.ox.ac.uk/materials/papers/2002-01text.pdf
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    1. Pritchett, Lant & Filmer,Deon, 1997. "What educational production functions really show : a positive theory of education spending," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1795, The World Bank.
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    1. repec:bpj:pepspp:v:18:y:2012:i:3:p:7:n:11 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Hosli Madeleine O. & Hoekstra Anke, 2013. "What Fosters Enduring Peace? An Analysis of Factors Influencing Civil War Resolution," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, pages 123-155.
    3. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Benoît Mercereau, 2004. "Political Instability and Growth; The Central African Republic," IMF Working Papers 04/80, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Grossman, Herschel I. & Mendoza, Juan, 2003. "Scarcity and appropriative competition," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 747-758, November.
    5. Jacky Amprou & Patrick Guillaumont & Sylviane Guillaumont Jeanneney, 2007. "Aid Selectivity According to Augmented Criteria," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(5), pages 733-763, May.
    6. Pang, Ke & Siklos, Pierre L., 2016. "Macroeconomic consequences of the real-financial nexus: Imbalances and spillovers between China and the U.S," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, pages 195-212.
    7. Balestri Sara, 2012. "Gold and Civil Conflict Intensity: evidence from a spatially disaggregated analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, pages 1-7.
    8. Manuel Fernández, 2012. "Violencia y derechos de propiedad: El caso de la violencia en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 30(69), pages 112-147, December.
    9. World Bank, 2007. "Social Resilience and State Fragility in Haiti," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6836.
    10. Dhaneshwar Ghura & Rina Bhattacharya, 2006. "Oil and Growth in the Republic of Congo," IMF Working Papers 06/185, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Louise Grogan, 2016. "Peoples of the Enemy? Ukrainians and Russians 1995–2011," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 606-637, December.
    12. Mironov, Valeriy V. & Petronevich, Anna V., 2015. "Discovering the signs of Dutch disease in Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, pages 97-112.
    13. Reynal-Querol, Marta, 2005. "Does democracy preempt civil wars?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 445-465, June.
    14. Chyanda Querido, "undated". "A Game Theoretic Approach of War," EcoMod2007 23900073, EcoMod.
    15. Chyanda Querido, 2009. "State-Sponsored Mass Killing in African Wars—Greed or Grievance?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, pages 351-361.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conflict; Development; Natural Resources; Panel Data;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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