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Europe, We Have a Problem! Local Economic Winners and Losers of Border Closures

Author

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  • Ketevani Kapanadze
  • Mariola Pytlikova

Abstract

In response to COVID-19, Schengen countries temporarily reintroduced internal border controls, disrupting cross-border integration. Using this policy change as a natural experiment and monthly nighttime lights data, we estimate the short-run effects on European municipalities. Municipalities along internal Schengen borders experienced a 3-4% decline in economic activity relative to interior municipalities, with larger estimated effects when external-border municipalities form the comparison group. Losses were greater in smaller and less densely populated municipalities and along economically asymmetric East-West borders, whereas municipalities along more economically similar borders generally experienced smaller declines. The effects also depended on the pre-pandemic purpose of cross-border mobility: higher shares of work- and business-related travel, services, and shopping were associated with larger losses, while the results for leisure and social mobility are consistent with greater scope for domestic reallocation of activity. Overall, the findings show that the local consequences of internal border closures depend on municipality characteristics, cross-border economic asymmetries, and the purpose of mobility.

Suggested Citation

  • Ketevani Kapanadze & Mariola Pytlikova, 2026. "Europe, We Have a Problem! Local Economic Winners and Losers of Border Closures," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 26218, ROCKWOOL Foundation Berlin (RFBerlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:26218
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    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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