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Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Corrado Giulietti

    (University of Southampton)

  • Brendon McConnell

    (City St George’s, University of London)

  • Yves Zenou

    (Monash University)

Abstract

How can crime be disrupted effectively without increasing resources? To answer this question, we develop a spatial network model of crime diffusion, using London as a case study. Moving beyond traditional hot spot policing, we identify key player neighborhoods—highly connected areas in the network. Counterfactual analysis shows that targeting top 10% of key players reduces crime by 10.7% (5.8 percentage points) more than targeting top 10% of hot spots, resulting in potential annual savings exceeding £130 million. Examining the underlying mechanisms, we find that while hot spots attract crime locally, key players facilitate its propagation across areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Corrado Giulietti & Brendon McConnell & Yves Zenou, 2025. "Beyond Hot Spots: Enhancing Police Effectiveness by Incorporating a Spatial Network Approach," RFBerlin Discussion Paper Series 2525, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin).
    • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:2525
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law

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