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The Doha Round and Market Access for LDCs: Scenarios for the EU and US Markets

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  • Carrère, Céline
  • de Melo, Jaime

Abstract

LDCs hoped that the DOHA round would bring them greater market access in OECD countries than for non-LDCs. Using HS-6 tariff level data for the US and the EU for 2004, this paper estimates that, once the erosion from preferential access into the EU to non-LDCs is taken into account, LDCs have about a 3% preferential margin in the EU market. In the US market, in spite of preferences under AGOA, on a trade-weighted basis, LDCs are discriminated against. Under various “Swiss formulas” for tariff cuts, effective market access for LDCs in the EU will be negligible and still negative in the US. If the US were to apply a 97% rule (i.e. duty-free, quota-free access for all but three percent of the tariff lines), LDCs could increase exports by 10% or about $1billion annually. Effective market access is further reduced by complicated Rules of Origin (RoO) applied by the EU and the US. Furthermore, generally, the most restrictive RoO fall on products in which LDCs have the greatest preferential market access.

Suggested Citation

  • Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime, 2009. "The Doha Round and Market Access for LDCs: Scenarios for the EU and US Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 7313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7313
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman & Miriam Manchin, 2006. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 197-216.
    2. Brenton, Paul, 2003. "Integrating the least developed countries into the world trading system : the current impact of EU preferences under everything but arms," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3018, The World Bank.
    3. Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Akiko Suwa-Eisenmann & Thierry Verdier, 2006. "The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements," Post-Print halshs-00754856, HAL.
    4. Cadot, Olivier & Carrere, Celine & De Melo, Jaime & Tumurchudur, Bolormaa, 2006. "Product-specific rules of origin in EU and US preferential trading arrangements: an assessment," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 199-224, July.
    5. Cadot, Olivier & Estevadeordal, Antoni & Suwa-Eisenmann, Akiko & Verdier, Thierry (ed.), 2006. "The Origin of Goods: Rules of Origin in Regional Trade Agreements," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199290482.
    6. Céline Carrère & Jaime de Melo & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2008. "Disentangling Market Access Effects for ASEAN Members under an ASEAN-EU FTA," Development Working Papers 259, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano.
    7. Céline Carrère & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Are Different Rules of Origin Equally Costly? Estimates from NAFTA," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 12, pages 277-298 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Flentø, Daniel & Ponte, Stefano, 2017. "Least-Developed Countries in a World of Global Value Chains: Are WTO Trade Negotiations Helping?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 366-374.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    LDCs; Market Access; Rules of Origin;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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