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The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for emerging Markets

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  • Dueker, Michael
  • Fischer, Andreas M

Abstract

This study seeks to determine if there were identifiable contrasts between the Austrian and Thai pegs that would have hinted at problems for Thailand prior to July 1997. The strategy is to first estimate a reaction function of a successful pegging country, i.e. Austria, to help identify salient features that made the Austrian peg credible. Next, the same model is applied to Thailand's monetary policy, an East Asian country that maintained one of the tightest pegs to the US dollar prior to its collapse. One lesson for pegging countries that emerges from the empirical results is that they ought to behave like assiduous inflation targeters even when there is no pressure on the exchange rate. A second lesson is that care is needed in choosing an anchor currency, because the major currencies experience wide swings against one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2001. "The Mechanics of a Successful Exchange-Rate Peg: Lessons for emerging Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 2829, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M., 1996. "Inflation targeting in a small open economy: Empirical results for Switzerland," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 89-103, February.
    2. von Hagen, J, 1995. "Inflation and Monetary Targeting in Germany," Papers 03, American Institute for Contemporary German Studies-.
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pesenti, Paolo & Roubini, Nouriel, 1999. "What caused the Asian currency and financial crisis?," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 305-373, October.
    4. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Hochreiter, Eduard & Winckler, Georg, 1995. "The advantages of tying Austria's hands: The success of the hard currency strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 83-111, March.
    6. Hausmann, Ricardo & Panizza, Ugo & Stein, Ernesto, 2001. "Why do countries float the way they float?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-414, December.
    7. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "Understanding Exchange Rate Volatility without the Contrivance of Macroeconomics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(459), pages 660-672, November.
    8. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
    9. Dueker, Michael & Fischer, Andreas M, 2000. "Austria's Hard-Currency Policy: The Mechanics of Successful Exchange-Rate Peg," CEPR Discussion Papers 2478, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrea Bubula & Inci Ötker, 2003. "Are Pegged and Intermediate Regimes More Crisis Prone?," IMF Working Papers 03/223, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Syed Kumail Abbas Rizvi & Bushra Naqvi & Nawazish Mirza, 2013. "Choice of Anchor Currencies and Dynamic Preferences for Exchange Rate Pegging in Asia," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 18(2), pages 37-49, July-Dec.
    3. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 2006. "Do inflation targeters outperform non-targeters?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 431-450.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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