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The Gravitational Constant?

Author

Listed:
  • O'Rourke, Kevin
  • Jacks, David
  • Taylor, Alan M.

Abstract

We introduce a new dataset on British exports at the bilateral, commodity-level from 1700 to 1899. We then pit two primary determinants of bilateral trade against one another: the trade-diminishing effects of distance versus the trade-enhancing effects of the British Empire. We find that gravity exerted its pull as early as 1700, but the distance effect then attenuated and had almost vanished by 1800. Meanwhile the empire effect peaked sometime in the late 18th century before significantly declining in value. It was only after 1950 that distance would once again exert the same influence that it has today.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Rourke, Kevin & Jacks, David & Taylor, Alan M., 2020. "The Gravitational Constant?," CEPR Discussion Papers 15326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:15326
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacks, David S. & Novy, Dennis, 2018. "Market Potential and Global Growth over the Long Twentieth Century," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 221-237.
    2. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1707-1721, September.
    3. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    4. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1985. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(3), pages 474-481, August.
    5. Michel Fouquin & Jules Hugot, 2016. "Back to the Future: International Trade Costs and the Two Globalizations," Vniversitas Económica, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá, vol. 0(0), pages 1-35, August.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6apm7lruv088iagm4rv2c33jtg is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), 2014. "Handbook of International Economics," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 4, number 4.
    8. Thomas Chaney, 2008. "Distorted Gravity: The Intensive and Extensive Margins of International Trade," SciencePo Working papers hal-03579844, HAL.
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    Cited by:

    1. Richard Pomfret, 2021. "‘Regionalism’ and the global trade system," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(9), pages 2496-2514, September.
    2. Ayuso-Díaz, Alejandro, 2022. "Natural trading partners versus empires in East and Southeast Asia regional integration (1840-1938)," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Distance; Empire; Gravity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • N7 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services

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