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When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions

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  • Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf
  • Weber, Andrea
  • Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia
  • Pamminger, Christoph

Abstract

Using Bayesian Markov chain clustering analysis we investigate career paths of Austrian women after their first birth. This data-driven method allows characterizing long-term career paths of mothers over up to 19 years by transitions between parental leave, non-employment and different forms of employment. We, thus, classify women into five cluster-groups with very different long-run career costs of childbearing. We model group membership with a multinomial specification within the finite mixture model. This approach gives insights into the determinants of the long-run family gap. Giving birth late in life may lead very diverse outcomes: on the one hand, it increases the odds to drop out of labor force, and on the other hand, it increases the odds to reach a high-wage career track.

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  • Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Weber, Andrea & Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia & Pamminger, Christoph, 2014. "When Is The Best Time To Give Birth - Career Effects Of Early Birth Decisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10132, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10132
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fortin, Nicole M. & Bell, Brian & Böhm, Michael, 2017. "Top earnings inequality and the gender pay gap: Canada, Sweden, and the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 107-123.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Family gap; Fertility; Markov chain monte carlo; Multinomial logit; Panel data; Timing of birth; Transition data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth

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