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Beyond Burgernomics and MacParity: Exchange Rate Forecasts Based on the Law of One Price

  • Matthias Lutz

    ()

    (University of St. Gallen)

Cumby (1996) suggests that (i) deviations from MacParity are stationary, (ii) relative Big Mac prices converge rapidly and (iii) provide significant information on likely future exchange rate movements. This paper examines to what extent these results can be generalised to other micro-level price data such as those provided in the UBS surveys Prices and Earnings round the Globe. In many respects, the MacParity findings do not constitute a special case, although they are sensitive to sample period and numeraire currency. Surprisingly, estimates based on aggregate CPI data for the same sample periods provide qualitatively similar results.

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Paper provided by International Conferences on Panel Data in its series 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 with number D4-1.

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Date of creation: Mar 2002
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Handle: RePEc:cpd:pd2002:d4-1
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  1. Robert J. Shiller & Pierre Perron, 1985. "Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis: Power versus Frequency of Observation," NBER Technical Working Papers 0045, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "A panel project on purchasing power parity: Mean reversion within and between countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 209-224, February.
  3. Robert E. Cumby, 1996. "Forecasting Exchange Rates and Relative Prices with the Hamburger Standard: Is What You Want What You Get With McParity?," NBER Working Papers 5675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
  5. Matthias Lutz, 2004. "Pricing in Segmented Markets, Arbitrage Barriers, and the Law of One Price: Evidence from the European Car Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 456-475, 08.
  6. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996. "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  7. Ken Froot & Kenneth Rogoff, . "Perspectives on PPP and Long-Run Real Exchange Rates," Working Paper 32027, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  8. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  9. Ong, Li Lian, 1997. "Burgernomics: the economics of the Big Mac standard," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(6), pages 865-878, December.
  10. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1995. "Empirical research on nominal exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 33, pages 1689-1729 Elsevier.
  11. Haskel, Jonathan & Wolf, Holger C, 1999. "Why Does the 'Law of One Price' Fail? A Case Study," CEPR Discussion Papers 2187, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Ng, Serena, 1995. "Testing for unit roots in flow data sampled at different frequencies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(3-4), pages 237-242, March.
  13. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-26, November.
  14. O'Connell, Paul G. J., 1998. "The overvaluation of purchasing power parity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, February.
  15. Maddala, G S & Wu, Shaowen, 1999. " A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 631-52, Special I.
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