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The impact of reforms on labour market exit probabilities

Author

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  • Rob Euwals

    (CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

  • Annemiek van Vuren
  • Daniel van Vuuren

Abstract

Early retirement schemes and disability insurance in the Netherlands have both been reformed during the past decades. The reforms have increased incentives to continue working and have decreased the substitution between early retirement and disability. This study investigates the impact of the reforms on labour market exit probabilities We use administrative data for workers in the Dutch health care sector between 1999 and 2006. We estimate a multinomial Logit model for transitions out of the labour force. The empirical results suggest that the reforms have been effective, as the labour market participation rate of the elderly has increased. The concept of substitute pathways into retirement seems less relevant today as the results confirm that disability insurance is closed off as an early retirement exit route. Key words: early retirement, disability insurance, labour supply

Suggested Citation

  • Rob Euwals & Annemiek van Vuren & Daniel van Vuuren, 2011. "The impact of reforms on labour market exit probabilities," CPB Discussion Paper 179, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:179
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    early retirement; disability insurance; labour supply;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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