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Volatilidad cambiaria en Colombia: cuantificación y determinantes

Author

Listed:
  • María Angélica Arbeláez
  • Roberto Steiner

Abstract

Existe cierta percepción en el país de que el peso colombiano es excesivamente volátil y de que ello en parte es consecuencia de la activa participación de los Fondos de Pensiones Obligatorias (FPOs) en el mercado cambiario. En este documento realizamos dos ejercicios. En primer lugar, estimamos diferentes medidas que nos permiten comparar, a diversas frecuencias, la volatilidad del peso con la de otras monedas y con la del mercado accionario local. En segundo lugar, analizamos algunos posibles determinantes de dicha volatilidad, incluyendo dentro de éstos el papel de los FPOs y el de las intervenciones del Banco de la República. Encontramos que la tasa de cambio en Colombia no ha sido persistentemente más volátil que en otros países como México, Brasil y Chile e incluso que el euro, aun cuando la volatilidad en Colombia aumentó en forma importante en 2005 a tasas superiores a las registradas en estos países, que la volatilidad ha sido mayor en períodos de devaluación que de revaluación de la tasa de cambio. También encontramos que, a pesar de que existe una relación positiva entre la operación de los FPO en el mercado cambiario y la volatilidad del peso, estos agentes.no parecen ser los responsables de la mayor volatilidad que se ha registrado recientemente en el país

Suggested Citation

  • María Angélica Arbeláez & Roberto Steiner, 2009. "Volatilidad cambiaria en Colombia: cuantificación y determinantes," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 9073, Fedesarrollo.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000123:009073
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/247
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Diego Vásquez E. & Pedro Felipe Lega G. & Andrés Murcia P. & Tatiana Venegas K., 2008. "Volatilidad de la tasa de cambio nominal en Colombia y su relación con algunas variables," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Concha, Alvaro & Galindo, Arturo José & Vasquez, Diego, 2011. "An assessment of another decade of capital controls in Colombia: 1998–2008," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 319-338.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fondos de Pensiones Obligatorias; Mercado cambiario; Volatilidad cambiaria; Colombia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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