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Revisando la evidencia sobre frenazos súbitos y crisis financieras

  • César TAMAYO y Andrés VARGAS

    ()

La nueva oleada de flujos de capital hacia economías emergentes ha renovado el interés por laocurrencia de un nuevo frenazo súbito o crisis de flujos de capital. Este trabajo es una nuevaaproximación al tema, a partir de los problemas de liquidez como determinantes de estosfrenazos súbitos. Se presenta una extensión al modelo planteado originalmente por Rodrik yVelasco (1999) en la que se introducen controles al capital y se modifican algunos supuestossobre el comportamiento de los acreedores. Adicionalmente, se estima un modelo probit en unamuestra de 39 países para el período 1978-2006 en el que se buscan los principalesdeterminantes de la ocurrencia de crisis. Los resultados confirman la hipótesis de iliquidez altiempo que restan importancia a las Reservas como medida de liquidez, invitando a reflexionarsobre la acelerada acumulación de éstas observada en la última década. Asimismo, el ejercicioofrece un nuevo acercamiento al papel que juega el grado de apertura al capital en la incidenciade frenazos súbitos. Para el caso de Colombia se observa que la probabilidad estimada de sufrircrisis ha caído sustancialmente, producto de menores déficit en cuenta corriente y una caídasistemática en la deuda de corto plazo desde mediados de los años 1990.

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Paper provided by DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN in its series ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA with number 003948.

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Length: 36
Date of creation: 15 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:col:000118:003948
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