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Sensibilidad del IPC a la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia: Una Medición de Largo Plazo

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  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez

Abstract

En el presente artículo se realiza una aproximación del pass-through de largo plazo de la tasade cambio nominal al índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) para Colombia durante el período1994 - 2005 siguiendo de cerca la propuesta de Campa y Goldberg (2006). En ella se tienen encuenta algunas de las hipótesis desarrolladas recientemente por la macroeconomía internacionalpara explicar el enigma de la desconexión entre la tasa de cambio y la inflación doméstica, talescomo la presencia de márgenes de distribución y comercialización sobre los bienes importados y elpeso de estos en la canasta del IPC. El ejercicio permite identificar, partiendo de una estructurade mercado de competencia monopolística y empleando la información contenida en las matricesde insumo-producto del DANE varios canales a través de los cuales se da el traspaso de un choquede la tasa de cambio nominal al IPC. La calibración bajo el escenario base permite concluir que,en promedio, una devaluación nominal del 10% implíca un incremento aproximado en el IPC del2.82 %. Adicionalmente, desde un punto de vista estático se observa que este efecto estimado noha sido constante durante el período estudiado y contrario a la hipótesis de Taylor (2000) el passthroughha aumentado en medio de una reducción de la inflación. En efecto, mientras que en 1994el efecto era del 2.64 %, en 2005 era de aproximadamente 2.91% con un pico de 3.41% en 2003.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, 2008. "Sensibilidad del IPC a la Tasa de Cambio en Colombia: Una Medición de Largo Plazo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005211, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:005211
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Dedola, Luca, 2005. "A macroeconomic model of international price discrimination," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 129-155, September.
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    3. Hernán Rincón & Édgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through effects: A disaggregate analysis of Colombian imports of manufactured goods," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 25(54), pages 90-121, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonaldi-Varón, Jean Pietro & González-Gómez, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2011. "Importancia de las rigideces nominales y reales en Colombia : un enfoque de equilibrio general dinámico y estocástico," Chapters, in: López Enciso, Enrique & Ramírez Giraldo, María Teresa (ed.), Formación de precios y salarios en Colombia T.1, volume 1, chapter 3, pages 70-99, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Restrepo O., Sergio Iván & Martínez R., Luis Esteban & Lopera C., Mauricio, 2011. "Una estimación de los impactos de la tasa de interés en el ciclo económico de Colombia: 1986-2010," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia - CIE, issue 18, pages 53-77, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Pass-Through; Transables; No Transables; Competencia Imperfecta; Matriz Insumo-Producto; Colombia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • L1 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance

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