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El tramo corto de la estructura a plazo como predictor de expectativas de la actividad econ�mica en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Luz Adriana Fl�rez
  • Ang�lica Mar�a Arosemena

Abstract

En relaci�n con los s�ntomas que probablemente tendr� la actividad econ�mica en el futuro, un aumento en el spread de tasas de inter�s reduce la probabilidad de tener momentos dif�ciles mas adelante. Este resultado se cumple para un per�odo 12 y 24 meses adelante y se ajusta al modelo te�rico utilizado. La inclusi�n de variables monetarias en el modelo emp�rico no afecta la significancia estad�stica ni los signos del spread ni del diferencial de inflaci�n. Sin embargo, el crecimiento monetario tambi�n contiene informaci�n sobre el ambiente econ�mico futuro.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Luz Adriana Fl�rez & Ang�lica Mar�a Arosemena, 2003. "El tramo corto de la estructura a plazo como predictor de expectativas de la actividad econ�mica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 2559, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002559
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    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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