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Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander F. Wagner

    (University of Zurich, Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), European Corporate Governance Institute (ECGI), and Swiss Finance Institute)

  • Richard J. Zeckhauser

    (Harvard University and National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Alexandre Ziegler

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract

Donald Trump’s election was a significant surprise. The reaction of company stock prices to the election reflects shifts in investor expectations about economic growth, taxes, and trade policy. High-beta stocks outperformed, presumably due to strengthened growth expectations. Expectations of significant corporate tax cuts boosted high-tax firms, but hurt firms with significant net operating loss carryforward balances. Investors currently perceive the climate to be more favorable for domestically-oriented companies than those with substantial foreign involvement. Markets incorporated expectations on growth and tax policy into stock prices relatively quickly; they took more time to digest the consequences of shifts in trade policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2017. "Company Stock Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-06, Swiss Finance Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:chf:rpseri:rp1706
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    Cited by:

    1. Wagner, Alexander F. & Zeckhauser, Richard & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2020. "The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act: Which Firms Won? Which Lost?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14950, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Yi Huang & Chen Lin & Sibo Liu & Heiwai Tang, 2018. "Trade Linkages and Firm Value: Evidence from the 2018 US-China “Trade War”," IHEID Working Papers 11-2018, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    3. Daniele Girardi, 2018. "Political shocks and financial markets : regression-discontinuity evidence from national elections," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2018-08, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
    4. Blanchard, Olivier & Collins, Christopher G. & Jahan-Parvar, Mohammad R. & Pellet, Thomas & Wilson, Beth Anne, 2018. "A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 489-502.
    5. Stefano Ramelli & Alexander F Wagner & Richard J Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2021. "Investor Rewards to Climate Responsibility: Stock-Price Responses to the Opposite Shocks of the 2016 and 2020 U.S. Elections [Asset pricing with liquidity risk]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(4), pages 748-787.
    6. Pedro L. Angosto‐Fernández & Victoria Ferrández‐Serrano, 2022. "Independence day: Political risk and cross‐sectional determinants of firm exposure after the Catalan crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 4318-4335, October.
    7. Alexander F. Wagner & Richard J. Zeckhauser & Alexandre Ziegler, 2017. "Paths to Convergence: Stock Price Behavior After Donald Trump's Election," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 17-36, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Feb 2018.
    8. Zhang, Si Ying, 2021. "Using equity market reactions and network analysis to infer global supply chain interdependencies in the context of COVID-19," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Ziemowit Bednarek & Jacqueline M Doremus & Sarah S Stith, 2022. "U.S. cannabis laws projected to cost generic and brand pharmaceutical firms billions," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(8), pages 1-19, August.
    10. Brownback, Andy & Novotny, Aaron, 2018. "Social desirability bias and polling errors in the 2016 presidential election," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 38-56.
    11. de Area Leão Pereira, Eder Johnson & da Silva, Marcus Fernandes & da Cunha Lima, I.C. & Pereira, H.B.B., 2018. "Trump’s Effect on stock markets: A multiscale approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 241-247.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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