Did the policy response to the energy crisis cause crime? Evidence from England

The invasion of Ukraine has led to an unprecedented increase in energy prices in much of Western Europe with policy makers actively intervening in energy markets to cushion the shock. The UK’s policy response stands out: the energy price guarantee (EPG) was entirely untargeted and is, in real terms, much less generous to those living in properties with low energy efficiency. Using granular data and following a documented research approach this paper documents that areas more exposed to the energy price shock saw a notable increase in burglaries and anti-social behaviour: the energy price shock is responsible for a 6 to 10 percent increase in burglaries and a 9 to 24 percent increase in police reported anti-social behaviour between October 2022 to March 2023 inclusive. A quantification of policy alternatives suggests that a more targeted energy support package and/or a more energy efficient housing stock could have resulted in a drastically less pronounced uptick in crime.