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Intraday Trading Invariance in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market

Author

Listed:
  • Torben G. Andersen

    (Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University)

  • Oleg Bondarenko

    (Department of Finance (MC 168), University of Illinois at Chicago)

  • Albert S. Kyle

    (Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland)

  • Anna Obizhaeva

    (New Economic School)

Abstract

The intraday trading patterns in the E-mini S&P 500 futures contract between January 2008 and November 2011 are consistent with the following invariance relationship: The return variation per transaction is log-linearly related to trade size, with a slope coefficient of -2. This association applies both across the pronounced intraday diurnal pattern and across days in the time series. The documented factor of proportionality deviates sharply from prior hypotheses relating volatility to transactions count or trading volume. Intraday trading invariance is motivated a priori by the intuition that market microstructure invariance, introduced by Kyle and Obizhaeva (2016c) to explain bets at low frequencies, also applies to transactions over high intraday frequencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko & Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Intraday Trading Invariance in the E-mini S&P 500 Futures Market," Working Papers w0229, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    • Handle: RePEc:cfr:cefirw:w0229
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    File URL: http://www.cefir.ru/papers/WP229.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Torben G. Andersen & Oleg Bondarenko, 2015. "Assessing Measures of Order Flow Toxicity and Early Warning Signals for Market Turbulence," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-54.
    3. Albert S. Kyle & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Market Microstructure Invariance: A Dynamic Equilibrium Model," Working Papers w0228, New Economic School (NES).
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    6. Anna, Petrenko, 2016. "Мaркування готової продукції як складова частина інформаційного забезпечення маркетингової діяльності підприємств овочепродуктового підкомплексу," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 2(1), March.
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    16. Alexander, Gordon J. & Peterson, Mark A., 2007. "An analysis of trade-size clustering and its relation to stealth trading," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(2), pages 435-471, May.
    17. Christian T. Brownlees & Fabrizio Cipollini & Giampiero M. Gallo, 2011. "Multiplicative Error Models," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2011_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Apr 2011.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mark D. Flood & John C. Liechty & Thomas Piontek, 2015. "Systemwide Commonalities in Market Liquidity," Working Papers 15-11, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    2. Frédéric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2020. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Post-Print hal-02323318, HAL.
    3. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2017. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," CREATES Research Papers 2017-26, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Barardehi, Yashar H. & Bernhardt, Dan & Ruchti, Thomas G., 2019. "A test of speculative arbitrage: is the cross-section of volatility invariant?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Angerer, Martin & Neugebauer, Tibor & Shachat, Jason, 2023. "Arbitrage bots in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 262-278.
    6. Albert S. Kyle & Anna A. Obizhaeva & Yajun Wang, 2020. "Industrial Organization, Order Internalization, and Invariance," Working Papers w0274, New Economic School (NES).
    7. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Invariance of buy-sell switching points," Working Papers w0232, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    8. Mikkel Bennedsen & Asger Lunde & Mikko S. Pakkanen, 2016. "Decoupling the short- and long-term behavior of stochastic volatility," Papers 1610.00332, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2021.
    9. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna Obizhaeva, 2016. "Invariance of buy-sell switching points," Working Papers w0232, New Economic School (NES).
    10. Fr'ed'eric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Papers 1902.03457, arXiv.org.
    11. Mathias Pohl & Alexander Ristig & Walter Schachermayer & Ludovic Tangpi, 2018. "Theoretical and empirical analysis of trading activity," Papers 1803.04892, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2018.
    12. Frédéric Bucci & Fabrizio Lillo & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Michael Benzaquen, 2019. "Are trading invariants really invariant? Trading costs matter," Working Papers hal-02323318, HAL.
    13. Kyoung-hun Bae & Albert S. Kyle & Eun Jung Lee & Anna A. Obizhaeva, 2020. "Invariance of Buy-Sell Switching Points," Working Papers w0273, New Economic School (NES).

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    Keywords

    market microstructure; invariance; bets; high-frequency trading; liquidity; volatility; volume; business time; time series; intraday patterns;
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