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Emigration Intentions and Risk Aversion: Causal Evidence from Albania

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  • Michel Beine
  • Gary Charness
  • Arnaud Dupuy

Abstract

Estimating the impact of risk aversion on emigration at the individual level is complicated by selection issues. In this paper, we use original data from Albania on mobility intentions and elicited risk aversion to provide causal estimates on this relationship. Our identification strategy relies on the occurrence of two earthquakes during data collection that unambiguously led to upward shifts in risk aversion as shown in a companion paper (Beine et al., 2021). While OLS estimates fail to capture a (negative) relationship between risk aversion and emigration intention, a Control Function strategy using the two earthquakes as instruments uncovers such a relationship. We argue that our results highlight a new channel through which risk preferences explain the trapped population phenomenon documented in the climate change and migration literature.

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Beine & Gary Charness & Arnaud Dupuy, 2021. "Emigration Intentions and Risk Aversion: Causal Evidence from Albania," CESifo Working Paper Series 9484, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_9484
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hao, Li & Houser, Daniel & Mao, Lei & Villeval, Marie Claire, 2016. "Migrations, risks, and uncertainty: A field experiment in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 131(PA), pages 126-140.
    2. Beine, Michel & Charness, Gary & Dupuy, Arnaud & Joxhe, Majlinda, 2020. "Shaking Things Up: On the Stability of Risk and Time Preferences," IZA Discussion Papers 13084, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Uri Gneezy & Jan Potters, 1997. "An Experiment on Risk Taking and Evaluation Periods," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(2), pages 631-645.
    4. Michel Beine & Arnaud Dupuy & Majlinda Joxhe, 2020. "Migration intentions: Data from a Field Study in Albania," DEM Discussion Paper Series 20-14, Department of Economics at the University of Luxembourg.
    5. Charness, Gary & Viceisza, Angelino, 2016. "Three Risk-elicitation Methods in the Field - Evidence from Rural Senegal," Review of Behavioral Economics, now publishers, vol. 3(2), pages 145-171, July.
    6. Guevara, C. Angelo, 2015. "Critical assessment of five methods to correct for endogeneity in discrete-choice models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 240-254.
    7. David A. Jaeger & Thomas Dohmen & Armin Falk & David Huffman & Uwe Sunde & Holger Bonin, 2010. "Direct Evidence on Risk Attitudes and Migration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 684-689, August.
    8. Dasgupta, Utteeyo & Mani, Subha & Sharma, Smriti & Singhal, Saurabh, 2019. "Internal and external validity: Comparing two simple risk elicitation tasks," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 39-46.
    9. Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2010. "Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232588, December.
    10. Goldbach, Carina & Schlüter, Achim, 2018. "Risk aversion, time preferences, and out-migration. Experimental evidence from Ghana and Indonesia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 132-148.
    11. Klaus Nowotny, 2014. "Cross-border commuting and migration intentions: the roles of risk aversion and time preference," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 8(2), June.
    12. Roberto Roca Paz & Silke Uebelmesser, 2021. "Risk attitudes and migration decisions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 649-684, June.
    13. Spitzer, Yannay & Tortorici, Gaspare & Zimran, Ariell, 2020. "International Migration Responses to Natural Disasters: Evidence from Modern Europe’s Deadliest Earthquake," CEPR Discussion Papers 15008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Holden, Stein T. & Tilahun, Mesfin, 2020. "Endowment Effects and Loss Aversion in the Risky Investment Game," CLTS Working Papers 1/20, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Centre for Land Tenure Studies.
    15. Charness, Gary & Gneezy, Uri & Imas, Alex, 2013. "Experimental methods: Eliciting risk preferences," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 43-51.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Huber & Till Nikolka & Panu Poutvaara & Ann-Marie Sommerfeld & Silke Uebelmesser, 2022. "Migration Aspirations and Intentions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9708, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    emigration; risk aversion; earthquakes; trapped population phenomenon;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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