IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_7812.html

The Rise of the 'No Party' in England

Author

Listed:
  • Toke Aidt
  • Christopher Rauh

Abstract

We document a remarkable increase over the past two and a half decades in the fraction of people in England feeling close to no party – the rise of the “no party” – which, today, is close to constituting an absolute majority. We develop a new method to distinguish between age, period, and cohort effects based on individual longitudinal survey data and we show that the rise of the “no party” is driven much more by a secular trend (period effects) than by generation replacement (cohort effects). We show that the increase in “no party” supporters and in their turnout behavior can explain 80% of the observed decline in election turnout in England over the period. A detailed investigation of the dynamics of party identification shows that party political disengagement has become more persistent over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Toke Aidt & Christopher Rauh, 2019. "The Rise of the 'No Party' in England," CESifo Working Paper Series 7812, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7812
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp7812.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aidt, T. S. & Rauh, C., 2017. "The Big Five personality traits and partisanship in England," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1745, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Kroh, Martin, 2014. "Growth trajectories in the strength of party identification: The legacy of autocratic regimes," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 33, pages 90-101.
    3. John Marshall, 2019. "The Anti‐Democrat Diploma: How High School Education Decreases Support for the Democratic Party," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 63(1), pages 67-83, January.
    4. Grasso, Maria Teresa & Farrall, Stephen & Gray, Emily & Hay, Colin & Jennings, Will, 2019. "Thatcher’s Children, Blair’s Babies, Political Socialization and Trickle-down Value Change: An Age, Period and Cohort Analysis," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(1), pages 17-36, January.
    5. Yang Yang & Kenneth C. Land, 2008. "Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Repeated Cross-Section Surveys: Fixed or Random Effects?," Sociological Methods & Research, , vol. 36(3), pages 297-326, February.
    6. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    2. repec:bic:journl:v:23:y:2023:i:1:p:2173915 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    4. José María Casado & Cristina Fernández-Vidaurreta & Juan F. Jimeno, 2012. "Labour flows in the EU at the beginning of the crisis," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JAN, pages 91-101, January.
    5. Ester Faia & Wolfgang Lechthaler & Christian Merkl, 2014. "Labor Selection, Turnover Costs, and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(1), pages 115-144, February.
    6. Y. Saks, 2016. "Socio-economic transitions on the labour market : a European benchmarking exercise," Economic Review, National Bank of Belgium, issue iii, pages 41-58, December.
    7. Panchanan Das, 2023. "Creation and Destruction of Jobs in Urban Labour Market: Role of Gender, Caste and Religion in India," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 66(1), pages 225-237, March.
    8. Carlos Madeira, 2019. "Adverse selection, loan access and default in the Chilean consumer debt market," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 838, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Filippos Petroulakis, 2023. "Task Content and Job Losses in the Great Lockdown," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 76(3), pages 586-613, May.
    10. Domenico Ferraro & Giuseppe Fiori, 2020. "The Aging of the Baby Boomers: Demographics and Propagation of Tax Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 167-193, April.
    11. Murtin, Fabrice & de Serres, Alain & Hijzen, Alexander, 2014. "Unemployment and the coverage extension of collective wage agreements," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 52-66.
    12. Krause, Michael U. & Lopez-Salido, David J. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2008. "Do search frictions matter for inflation dynamics?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1464-1479, November.
    13. Sara Rica & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2017. "Gender Differentials in Unemployment Ins and Outs during the Great Recession in Spain," De Economist, Springer, vol. 165(1), pages 67-99, March.
    14. Mary A. Burke & Alicia Sasser Modestino & Shahriar Sadighi & Rachel B. Sederberg & Bledi Taska, 2019. "No Longer Qualified? Changes in the Supply and Demand for Skills within Occupations," Working Papers 20-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    15. Agostino Consolo & Filippos Petroulakis, 2024. "Did COVID‐19 induce a reallocation wave?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(364), pages 1349-1390, October.
    16. Peter A. Diamond, 2013. "Structural unemployment," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    17. Soojin Jo & Justin J. Lee, 2019. "Uncertainty and Labor Market Fluctuations," Working Papers 1904, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    18. Madeira, Carlos, 2026. "Identification of earnings dynamics using rotating samples over short periods: the case of Chile," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    19. Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    20. Diaz, Antonia & Dolado, Juan J. & Jáñez, Álvaro & Wellschmied, Felix, 2025. "Labor reallocation effects of furlough schemes: Evidence from two recessions in Spain," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    21. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2005-045 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7812. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.