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Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy

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  • Klaus Adam
  • Michael Woodford

Abstract

We analytically characterize optimal monetary policy for an augmented New Keynesian model with a housing sector. In a setting where the private sector has rational expectations about future housing prices and inflation, optimal monetary policy can be characterized without making reference to housing price developments: commitment to a ‘target criterion’ that refers to inflation and the output gap only is optimal, as in the standard model without a housing sector. When the policymaker is concerned with potential departures of private sector expectations from rational ones and seeks to choose a policy that is robust against such possible departures, then the optimal target criterion must also depend on housing prices. In the empirically realistic case where housing is subsidized and where monopoly power causes output to fall short of its optimal level, the robustly optimal target criterion requires the central bank to ‘lean against’ housing prices: following unexpected housing price increases, policy should adopt a stance that is projected to undershoot its normal targets for inflation and the output gap, and similarly aim to overshoot those targets in the case of unexpected declines in housing prices. The robustly optimal target criterion does not require that policy distinguish between ‘fundamental’ and ‘non-fundamental’ movements in housing prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Adam & Michael Woodford, 2018. "Leaning Against Housing Prices as Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 7071, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_7071
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    2. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2010. "Robustly Optimal Monetary Policy with Near-Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 274-303, March.
    4. Adam, Klaus & Woodford, Michael, 2012. "Robustly optimal monetary policy in a microfounded New Keynesian model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(5), pages 468-487.
    5. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    6. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
    7. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
    8. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "Robust estimation and control under commitment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 258-301, October.
    9. Angelo Reati, 2011. "A Handbook of Alternative Monetary Economics," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 160-166.
    10. Giannoni, Marc P. & Woodford, Michael, 2017. "Optimal target criteria for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 55-106.
    11. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Paciello, Luigi, 2014. "Monetary policy, doubts and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 85-98.
    12. Minxian Yang, 2008. "Normal log-normal mixture, leptokurtosis and skewness," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 737-742.
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    Cited by:

    1. Colin Caines & Fabian Winkler, 2019. "Asset Price Beliefs and Optimal Monetary Policy," 2019 Meeting Papers 713, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Adam, Klaus & Merkel, Sebastian, 2019. "Stock price cycles and business cycles," Working Paper Series 2316, European Central Bank.
    3. Zoe Venter, 2019. "The Interaction Between ConventionalMonetary Policy and Financial Stability: Chile, Colombia, Japan, Portugal and the UK," Working Papers REM 2019/96, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    4. Colin Caines & Fabian Winkler, 2018. "Asset Price Learning and Optimal Monetary Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1236, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    asset price bubbles; leaning against the wind; inflation targeting;

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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