IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_4551.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Hailong Jin
  • E. Kwan Choi

Abstract

China’s currency policy has been criticized for its apparent pursuit of mercantile advantage by artificially stimulating exports, which potentially have adverse effects on other economies. While China’s currency policy may have positive output effects, there may be additional profits or losses. This paper computes the annual and cumulative accounting profits from currency intervention since 1994 when China began its currency intervention. It is shown that profits initially were positive but China since 2007 has lost a massive amount from the currency market.

Suggested Citation

  • Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2013. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994-2011," CESifo Working Paper Series 4551, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4551
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp4551.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt2883n7z5, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    2. Dilip K. Ghosh & Augustine C. Arize, 2003. "Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 473-496, August.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Chapters, in: Volbert Alexander & Hans-Helmut Kotz (ed.), Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy, chapter 3, pages 45-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael, 2006. "Effectiveness of official daily foreign exchange market intervention operations in Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 199-219, March.
    5. Ghosh, Dilip K, 1997. "Profit Multiplier in Covered Currency Trading with Leverage," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-409, May.
    6. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "The expansion of central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: what are the risks?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    7. Sweeney, Richard J., 1997. "Do central banks lose on foreign-exchange intervention? A review article," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1667-1684, December.
    8. Leahy, Michael P, 1995. "The profitability of US intervention in the foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(6), pages 823-844, December.
    9. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "China's financial conundrum and global imbalances," BIS Working Papers 277, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    11. repec:bla:pacecr:v:10:y:2005:i:1:p:73-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fender, John & Rankin, Neil, 2011. "A further contribution towards explaining why disinflation through currency pegging may cause a boom," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 516-536, April.
    13. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2883n7z5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    14. Guonan Ma & Yan Xiandong & Liu Xi, 2013. "China’s evolving reserve requirements," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 117-137, May.
    15. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo.
    16. Fatum, Rasmus & Hutchison, Michael M., 2003. "Effectiveness of Official Daily Foreign Exchange Market Intervention Operations in Japan," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3rg5p5j2, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    17. Taylor, Dean, 1982. "Official Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market, or, Bet against the Central Bank," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(2), pages 356-368, April.
    18. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2018. "Unemployment and optimal exchange rate in an open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-90.
    2. Jin, Hailong & Choi, Yoonho & Kwan Choi, E., 2016. "Unemployment and optimal currency intervention in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-261.
    3. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.
    4. Hongxing Yao & Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahaman, 2018. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and the RMB-Dollar Rates: A Nonlinear Modeling of the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 150-160, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2014. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994–2011," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 170-183, May.
    2. Neely, Christopher J., 2008. "Central bank authorities' beliefs about foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-25, February.
    3. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chang, Mei-Ching & Suardi, Sandy & Chang, Yuanchen, 2017. "Foreign exchange intervention in Asian countries: What determine the odds of success during the credit crisis?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 370-390.
    5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 87(Nov), pages 685-718.
    6. Sideris, Dimitrios A., 2008. "Foreign exchange intervention and equilibrium real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 344-357, October.
    7. Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "Government intervention in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers (Old Series) 0315, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Takatoshi Ito, 2007. "Myths and reality of foreign exchange interventions: an application to Japan," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-154.
    9. Alain P. Chaboud & Owen F. Humpage, 2003. "An analysis of Japanese foreign exchange interventions, 1991-2002," Working Papers (Old Series) 0309, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    10. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 617-643, January.
    11. Michael D. Bordo & Owen F. Humpage & Anna J. Schwartz, 2015. "Epilogue: Foreign-Exchange-Market Operations in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Chapters, in: Strained Relations: US Foreign-Exchange Operations and Monetary Policy in the Twentieth Century, pages 345-363, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Kim, Suk-Joong, 2007. "Intraday evidence of efficacy of 1991-2004 Yen intervention by the Bank of Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 341-360, October.
    13. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2012. "Foreign reserve management during the global financial crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2017-2037.
    14. Solomiia Brychka & Denys Klynovskyi & Dmytro Krukovets & Artem Oharkov, 2019. "Meta-Analysis: Meta-Analysis: Effect of FX interventions on the exchange rate," Modern Economic Studies, Kyiv School of Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 24-44.
    15. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & McCauley, Robert N. & Ueda, Kazuo, 2016. "Currency intervention and the global portfolio balance effect: Japanese lessons," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 1-16.
    16. Fatum, Rasmus & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "Large versus small foreign exchange interventions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 114-123.
    17. Dreher, Axel & Vaubel, Roland, 2009. "Foreign exchange intervention and the political business cycle: A panel data analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 755-775, September.
    18. Fatum, Rasmus, 2015. "Foreign exchange intervention when interest rates are zero: Does the portfolio balance channel matter after all?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 185-199.
    19. Choi, E. Kwan & Jin, Hailong, 2014. "Currency intervention and consumer welfare in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-56.
    20. Liu, Li-Gang & Pauwels, Laurent L., 2012. "Do external political pressures affect the Renminbi exchange rate?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1800-1818.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4551. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.