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Profits and losses from currency intervention

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  • Jin, Hailong
  • Choi, E. Kwan

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible gains from currency intervention by central banks using a two-period framework in which a trade surplus in one period must be offset by a trade deficit in the next period. It is shown that when the interest rate is zero, the optimal policy is nonintervention. If the interest rate is positive, a country may earn positive profits by incurring a trade surplus in the first period. However, there is an upper bound for optimal trade surplus. A country actually may lose money if the rate of devaluation below the equilibrium is greater than the interest rate. The limiting surplus share model suggests that China may have been losing money from excessive devaluation of renminbi since 2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Hailong & Choi, E. Kwan, 2013. "Profits and losses from currency intervention," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 14-20.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:27:y:2013:i:c:p:14-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.08.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dilip K. Ghosh & Augustine C. Arize, 2003. "Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 473-496, August.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2011. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 32-43, January.
    3. Ghosh, Dilip K, 1997. "Profit Multiplier in Covered Currency Trading with Leverage," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-409, May.
    4. Hsiao, Yu-Ming & Pan, Sheng-Chieh & Wu, Po-Chin, 2012. "Does the central bank's intervention benefit trade balance? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 130-139.
    5. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
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    1. Jin, Hailong & Choi, Yoonho & Kwan Choi, E., 2016. "Unemployment and optimal currency intervention in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-261.
    2. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2018. "Unemployment and optimal exchange rate in an open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-90.
    3. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
    4. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.
    5. Hongxing Yao & Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahaman, 2018. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and the RMB-Dollar Rates: A Nonlinear Modeling of the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 150-160, February.
    6. Choi, E. Kwan & Jin, Hailong, 2014. "Currency intervention and consumer welfare in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-56.

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    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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