IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/isu/genres/37378.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention

Author

Listed:
  • Jin, Hailong
  • Choi, E Kwan

Abstract

This paper investigates the possible gains from currency intervention by central banks using atwo-period framework in which a trade surplus in one period must be offset by a trade deficitin the next period. It is shown that when the interest rate is zero, the optimal policy isnonintervention. If the interest rate is positive, a country may earn positive profits by incurringa trade surplus in the first period. However, there is an upper bound for optimal trade surplus.A country actually may lose money if the rate of devaluation below the equilibrium is greaterthan the interest rate. The limiting surplus share model suggests that China may have beenlosing money from excessive devaluation of renminbi since 2002.

Suggested Citation

  • Jin, Hailong & Choi, E Kwan, 2013. "Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention," Staff General Research Papers Archive 37378, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:37378
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/papers/p17378-2013-03-07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1059056012000895
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip K. Ghosh & Augustine C. Arize, 2003. "Profit Possibilities in Currency Markets: Arbitrage, Hedging, and Speculation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 473-496, August.
    2. Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay & Sethy, Anmol & Balasubramaniam, Vimal, 2011. "The exchange rate regime in Asia: From crisis to crisis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 32-43, January.
    3. Ghosh, Dilip K, 1997. "Profit Multiplier in Covered Currency Trading with Leverage," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 32(2), pages 391-409, May.
    4. Hsiao, Yu-Ming & Pan, Sheng-Chieh & Wu, Po-Chin, 2012. "Does the central bank's intervention benefit trade balance? Empirical evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 130-139.
    5. Thorvaldur Gylfason & Michael Schmid, 1983. "Does Devaluation Cause Stagflation?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(4), pages 641-654, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Choi, Yoonho & Choi, E. Kwan, 2018. "Unemployment and optimal exchange rate in an open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 82-90.
    2. Jin, Hailong & Choi, Yoonho & Kwan Choi, E., 2016. "Unemployment and optimal currency intervention in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-261.
    3. Reher, Gerrit & Wilfling, Bernd, 2014. "The valuation of European call options on zero-coupon bonds in the run-up to a fixed exchange-rate regime," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 483-496.
    4. Choi, E. Kwan & Jin, Hailong, 2014. "Currency intervention and consumer welfare in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-56.
    5. Alexander Erler & Stefan Hohberger, 2016. "Editor's Choice TARGET2: How Costly is Buying Time?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 62(3), pages 491-505.
    6. Hongxing Yao & Abdul Rashid Abdul Rahaman, 2018. "Efficient Market Hypothesis and the RMB-Dollar Rates: A Nonlinear Modeling of the Exchange Rate," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(2), pages 150-160, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Choi, E. Kwan & Jin, Hailong, 2014. "Currency intervention and consumer welfare in an open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 47-56.
    2. Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2013. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994-2011," CESifo Working Paper Series 4551, CESifo.
    3. Jin, Hailong, 2013. "Essays on currency intervention, with particular reference to Chinese economy," ISU General Staff Papers 201301010800004079, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    4. Ghosh, Dilip K. & Ghosh, Dipasri & Bhatnagar, Chandra Shekhar, 2010. "Cross-listed cross-currency assets and arbitrage with forwards and options," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 98-110.
    5. Hailong Jin & E. Kwan Choi, 2014. "China's Profits and Losses from Currency Intervention, 1994–2011," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 170-183, May.
    6. Ghosh, Dilip K. & Arize, Augustine & Ghosh, Dipasri, 2015. "Trades in commodities, financial assets, and currencies: A triangle of arbitrage, hedging and speculative designs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 1-9.
    7. An, Lian & Kim, Gil & Ren, Xiaomei, 2014. "Is devaluation expansionary or contractionary: Evidence based on vector autoregression with sign restrictions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 27-41.
    8. Sen Gupta, Abhijit & Sengupta, Rajeswari, 2013. "Management of Capital Flows in India: 1990-2011," MPRA Paper 46217, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Soriano, Ma. Cecilia G., 1990. "Classifying the Economy into Traded or Nontraded Sectors," Philippine Journal of Development JPD 1990 Vol. XVII No. 2-, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    10. Wu, Po-Chin & Liu, Shiao-Yen & Pan, Sheng-Chieh, 2013. "Nonlinear bilateral trade balance-fundamentals nexus: A panel smooth transition regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 318-329.
    11. NAGHDI Yazdan & KAGHAZIAN Soheila, 2015. "The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran:Application Of Threshold Models," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 10(2), pages 99-113, August.
    12. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
    13. Nergiz Dincer & Magda Kandil, 2011. "The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports: A sectoral analysis for Turkey," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(6), pages 809-837, June.
    14. Debabrata Datta & Susmita Chatterjee, 2013. "A Simple Model of Macroeconomic Instability in the Background of the Indian Economy," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 2(1), pages 81-106, June.
    15. Donyina-Ameyaw, Samuel, 2004. "A Small Macroeconmetric Model Of Trade And Inflation In Ghana," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 696, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    16. Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2012. "Did the Indian Capital Controls Work as a Tool of Macroeconomic Policy?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(3), pages 439-464, September.
    17. M Bahmani-Oskooee & I Miteza, 2006. "Stock Market Growth: An analysis of cointegration and causality," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 11(1), pages 37-64, March.
    18. Rajeswari Sengupta, 2015. "The impossible trinity: Where does India stand?," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-05, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    19. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    20. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    currency intervention; optimal exchange rate;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:isu:genres:37378. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Curtis Balmer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deiasus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.