Organized Crime, Hidden Pollution, and Long-run Health Costs

We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in-differences design. Using administrative data on cancer deaths spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants increases the number of cancer deaths substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In later years, wind exposure implies roughly two additional cancer deaths per municipality-year relative to unexposed municipalities equally proximate to contaminated sites. Our findings reveal a previously unmeasured health externality of organized crime.