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Organized Crime, Violence and Support for the State

Author

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  • Campedelli, Gian Maria
  • Daniele, Gianmarco
  • Martinangeli, Andrea
  • Pinotti, Paolo

Abstract

Citizens’ support is crucial to effectively combat organized crime. Contrary to prior studies that have identified a negative correlation between victimization and trust in the state, we find that exposinga representative sample of 6,000 individuals in Italy to journalistic images of organized crime-related violence increases trust towards institutions and state performance. We attribute this finding to a "rally around the flag" effect, rather than to the decrease in homicide rates occurring over the last decades – in fact, individuals wrongly believe that homicides have increased during such period. Updating beliefs on the real trend in violence does not appear to modify this relationship. Overall, these findings highlight how exposure to violence, especially when linked to organized groups, might strengthen state support.

Suggested Citation

  • Campedelli, Gian Maria & Daniele, Gianmarco & Martinangeli, Andrea & Pinotti, Paolo, 2023. "Organized Crime, Violence and Support for the State," CEPR Discussion Papers 18146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:18146
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    2. Buonanno, Paolo & Ferrari, Irene & Saia, Alessandro, 2024. "All is not lost: Organized crime and social capital formation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Francesco Passarelli & Willem Sas & Lisa Windsteiger, 2023. "Externalities and the Erosion of Trust," CESifo Working Paper Series 10474, CESifo.
    4. Hai, Tao & Asadollahzadeh, Muhammad & Singh Chauhan, Bhupendra & A Al-Ebrahim, Meshari & Bunian, Sara & Eskandarzade, Arman & Salah, Bashir, 2024. "Machine learning optimization and 4E analysis of a CCHP system integrated into a greenhouse system for carbon dioxide capturing," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    5. Pierluigi Conzo & Gianmarco Daniele & Andrea F.M. Martinangeli & Willem Sas, 2025. "Are Bad Institutions Always Bad for Society? Trust and Cooperation in Times of Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 11987, CESifo.
    6. Gianmarco Daniele & Marco De Simoni & Domenico J. Marchetti & Giovanna Marcolongo & Paolo Pinotti, 2025. "A loan you can't refuse: credit rationing and organized crime infiltration of distressed firms," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 25255, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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