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The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Worker Careers: Do Different Job Opportunities Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Mara Buhmann
  • Laura Pohlan
  • Duncan Roth

Abstract

This paper exploits that the Covid-19 pandemic came as an unexpected shock that temporarily reduced the ratio of vacancies to seekers. We use this unique setting to understand the importance of job opportunities for the impact of unemployment on workers’ careers. Compared to individuals who became unemployed under more benign conditions, we find greater and lasting adverse effects on earnings. We provide evidence that lower job opportunities lead unemployed individuals to take up jobs that are further down the occupation-specific wage distribution. Finally, we substantiate the importance of job prospects by using exogenous variation in the pandemic’s effect on occupations.

Suggested Citation

  • Mara Buhmann & Laura Pohlan & Duncan Roth, 2025. "The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Worker Careers: Do Different Job Opportunities Matter?," CESifo Working Paper Series 11858, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11858
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blien, Uwe & Dauth, Wolfgang & Roth, Duncan H.W., 2021. "Occupational routine intensity and the costs of job loss: evidence from mass layoffs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
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    3. Adams-Prassl, Abi & Boneva, Teodora & Golin, Marta & Rauh, Christopher, 2020. "Inequality in the impact of the coronavirus shock: Evidence from real time surveys," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    4. Andreas Gulyas & Krzysztof Pytka, 2019. "Understanding the Sources of Earnings Losses After Job Displacement: A Machine-Learning Approach," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_131, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    5. Henry S. Farber, 2017. "Employment, Hours, and Earnings Consequences of Job Loss: US Evidence from the Displaced Workers Survey," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(S1), pages 235-272.
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    7. Altmann, Steffen & Falk, Armin & Jäger, Simon & Zimmermann, Florian, 2018. "Learning about job search: A field experiment with job seekers in Germany," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 33-49.
    8. Biewen, Martin & Fitzenberger, Bernd & Rümmele, Marian, 2022. "Using Distribution Regression Difference-in-Differences to Evaluate the Effects of a Minimum Wage Introduction on the Distribution of Hourly Wages and Hours Worked," IZA Discussion Papers 15534, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Campos-Vazquez, Raymundo M. & Esquivel, Gerardo & Ghosh, Priyasmita & Medina-Cortina, Eduardo, 2023. "Long-lasting effects of a depressed labor market: Evidence from Mexico after the great recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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