Asian Crises: Theory, Evidence, Warning-Signals
In July 1997, the economies of East Asia became embroiled in one of the worst financial crises of the postwar period. Yet, prior to the crisis, these economies were seen as models of economic growth experiencing sustained growth rates that exceeded those earlier thought unattainable. Why did the market not anticipate the crises? To this end, we review the Asian financial crisis from two related perspectives - whether the crisis was precipitated by a failure of the real exchange rate to be aligned with its fundamental determinants and/or whether the crisis was precipitated by a divergence of the foreign debt from its optimal path. The first perspective is based on a coherent theory of the equilibrium real exchange rate - the NATREX model - that shows how “misalignments” lead to currency crises. The second perspective is based on a model of optimal foreign debt ratio - derived from stochastic optimal control - which shows why “divergences” lead to debt crises. The important point here is that these models suggest important variables which may serve as warning signals to predict crises.
|Date of creation:||2004|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich|
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 2001.
"Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment,"
2001-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2003.
"The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 51-74, Fall.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2002. "Two Hundred Years of Contagion," MPRA Paper 13229, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Vegh, 2003. "The Unholy Trinity of Financial Contagion," NBER Working Papers 10061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela & Vegh, Carlos, 2003. "The unholy trinity of financial contagion," MPRA Paper 13878, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Jerome L. Stein & Guay C. Lim, 2002. "Introduction to "Exchange Rates in Europe and Australasia: Fundamental Determinants, Adjustments and Policy Implications"," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 329-341, December.
- Ramkishen S. Rajan & Reza Siregar, 2002. "Choice of Exchange Rate Regime: Currency Board (Hong Kong) or Monitoring Band (Singapore)?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(4), pages 538-556, December.
- Carlos O. Arteta, 2003. "Are financially dollarized countries more prone to costly crises?," International Finance Discussion Papers 763, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Klaus Wohlrabe)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.