Stochastic Optimal Control Modeling of Debt Crises
What is an optimal or a sustainable external debt - for a country, region or sector? How should one monitor and evaluate debt to preclude a crisis? We use stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive an optimal debt. The deviation of the actual from the optimal will serve as a Warning Signal of a crisis. There is a correspondence between Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of Dynamic Programming and the static Mean-Variance (M-V) analysis in finance. A graphic analysis of M-V is helpful to explain the implications of DP. An explicit example is the US Agricultural debt crisis.
|Date of creation:||2003|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 2001.
"Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment,"
2001-08, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Robison, Lindon J. & Barry, Peter J. & Burghardt, William G., 1987. "Borrowing Behavior Under Financial Stress By The Proprietary Firm: A Theoretical Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(02), December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_1043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.