Stochastic Optimal Control Modeling of Debt Crises
What is an optimal or a sustainable external debt - for a country, region or sector? How should one monitor and evaluate debt to preclude a crisis? We use stochastic optimal control/dynamic programming to derive an optimal debt. The deviation of the actual from the optimal will serve as a Warning Signal of a crisis. There is a correspondence between Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of Dynamic Programming and the static Mean-Variance (M-V) analysis in finance. A graphic analysis of M-V is helpful to explain the implications of DP. An explicit example is the US Agricultural debt crisis.
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- Robison, Lindon J. & Barry, Peter J. & Burghardt, William G., 1987. "Borrowing Behavior Under Financial Stress By The Proprietary Firm: A Theoretical Analysis," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 12(02), December.
- Jerome L. Stein & Giovanna Paladino, 2001.
"Country Default Risk: An Empirical Assessment,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
469, CESifo Group Munich.
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