IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_10880.html

Economic Knock-On Effects of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on Advanced Economies: A Global VAR Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Boris Blagov
  • Maximilian Dirks
  • Michael Funke

Abstract

Using Russia as a case study and a global VAR model as a methodological tool, we analyze how heightened geopolitical risk shocks propagate across advanced economies and quantify the economic effects of these events. The global VAR impulse response functions in response to the skyrocketing Russian geo-political risk shock after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine revealed a contraction of GDP and an increase in inflation. Eastern European neighboring countries are particularly affected by the Russian geopolitical risk shock. We also document a strong component of the Russian geopolitical risk shock that is not driven by fossil fuel prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Boris Blagov & Maximilian Dirks & Michael Funke, 2024. "Economic Knock-On Effects of Russia’s Geopolitical Risk on Advanced Economies: A Global VAR Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10880, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10880
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp10880.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E, 2002. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 45-59, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dirks, Maximilian W., 2025. "When two quarrel, the third rejoices: Windfall FDIs and the early winners of the Russian-Ukrainian war," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325433, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Dirks, Maximilian W., 2025. "When two quarrel, the third rejoices: Windfall FDI and the early winners of the Russian-Ukrainian war," Ruhr Economic Papers 1161, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    3. Schmidt, Torsten & Blagov, Boris & Coschignano, Eliana & Dirks, Maximilian & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & Isaak, Niklas & Kirsch, Florian & Krause, Clara & Kotz, Stefan & Schacht-Picozzi, Philip & We, 2025. "Frühjahr 2025: Deutsche Wirtschaft weiter im Leerlauf," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 76, pages 1-40.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    2. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    3. Nyakabawo, Wendy & Miller, Stephen M. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Das, Sonali & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Temporal causality between house prices and output in the US: A bootstrap rolling-window approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-73.
    4. Strauss, Jack & Yigit, Taner, 2001. "Present value model, heteroscedasticity and parameter stability tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 375-378, December.
    5. Wang, Xinghua & Lee, Zhengzheng & Wu, Shuang & Qin, Meng, 2023. "Exploring the vital role of geopolitics in the oil market: The case of Russia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    6. Qin, Meng & Su, Chi-Wei & Tao, Ran, 2021. "BitCoin: A new basket for eggs?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 896-907.
    7. Philip Arestis & Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh, 2004. "Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(2), pages 214-222, April.
    8. Tillmann, Peter, 2003. "Cointegration and Regime-Switching Risk Premia in the U.S. Term Structure of Interest Rates," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers 27/2003, University of Bonn, Bonn Graduate School of Economics (BGSE).
    9. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    10. Wei Su, Chi & Yue Song, Xin & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona & Umar, Muhammad, 2024. "Optimistic or pessimistic: How do investors impact the green bond market?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    11. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Housing and the Great Depression," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(24), pages 2966-2981, August.
    12. Osorio, Carolina & Unsal, D. Filiz, 2013. "Inflation dynamics in Asia: Causes, changes, and spillovers from China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 26-40.
    13. Aslan, Alper & Destek, Mehmet Akif & Okumus, İlyas, 2017. "Sectoral carbon emissions and economic growth in the US: Further evidence from rolling window estimation method," MPRA Paper 106961, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Qin, Meng & Hu, Wei & Qi, Xinzhou & Chang, Tsangyao, 2024. "Do the benefits outweigh the disadvantages? Exploring the role of artificial intelligence in renewable energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    15. Ramzi Issa & Robert Lafrance & John Murray, 2008. "The turning black tide: energy prices and the Canadian dollar," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(3), pages 737-759, August.
    16. Kurita, Takamitsu, 2020. "Likelihood-based tests for parameter constancy in I(2) CVAR models with an application to fixed-term deposit data," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    17. Su, Chi Wei & Song, Xin Yue & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2024. "Is copper a safe haven for oil?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    18. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    19. Moayad H. Al Rasasi, 2020. "Assessing the Stability of Money Demand Function in Saudi Arabia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 22-28, 02-2020.
    20. Holinski, N. & Vermeulen, R., 2009. "The international wealth effect : a global error-correcting analysis," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10880. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.