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Nominal and Real Wages in the UK, 1750 - 2015: Mean Reversion, Persistence and Structural Breaks

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper analyses the stochastic properties of UK nominal and real wages over the period 1750-2015 using fractional integration techniques. Both the original series and logged ones are analysed. The results generally suggest that nominal wages exhibit a higher degree of persistence, which reflects relatively long lags between inflation and wage adjustments. Endogenous break tests are also carried out and various structural breaks are identified in both series. On the whole the corresponding subsample estimates imply an increase over time in the degree of persistence of both series.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2022. "Nominal and Real Wages in the UK, 1750 - 2015: Mean Reversion, Persistence and Structural Breaks," CESifo Working Paper Series 10018, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10018
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alfonso Arpaia & Karl Pichelmann, 2007. "Nominal and real wage flexibility in EMU," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 299-328, November.
    2. William H. Branson & Julio J. Rotemberg, 1991. "International Adjustment with Wage Rigidity," NBER Chapters, in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 13-44, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1979. "Wages, Profits, and Macroeconomic Adjustment: A Comparative Study," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(2), pages 269-332.
    4. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 2005. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199279173, Decembrie.
    5. Stéphane Bonhomme & Thibaut Lamadon & Elena Manresa, 2019. "A Distributional Framework for Matched Employer Employee Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(3), pages 699-739, May.
    6. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Testing the unit root with drift hypothesis against nonlinear trend stationarity, with an application to the US price level and interest rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 29-64, November.
    7. Luis A. Gil-Alana & OlaOluwa S. Yaya, 2021. "Testing fractional unit roots with non-linear smooth break approximations using Fourier functions," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(13-15), pages 2542-2559, November.
    8. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Fumitaka Furuoka & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2021. "A New Unit Root Test for Unemployment Hysteresis Based on the Autoregressive Neural Network," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 960-981, August.
    9. Hospido, Laura, 2015. "Wage dynamics in the presence of unobserved individual and job heterogeneity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-93.
    10. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    11. Guglielmo Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2006. "Long memory at the long run and at the cyclical frequencies: modelling real wages in England, 1260–1994," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 83-93, March.
    12. Gil-Alana, L.A., 2005. "A re-examination of historical real daily wages in England: 1260-1994," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 829-838, October.
    13. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    nominal and real wages; mean reversion; persistence; fractional integration; structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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