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Are People Moving Home Less? An Analysis of Address Changing in England and Wales, 1971-2011, Using the ONS Longitudinal Study

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  • Tony Champion
  • Ian Shuttleworth

Abstract

Expectations of migration and mobility steadily increasing in the longer term, which have a long currency in migration theory and related social science, are at odds with the latest US research showing a marked decline in internal migration rates. Given the similarity in demographic, economic and social trends between the USA and the UK, this paper reports the results of research that investigates whether the latter has been experienced any similar change in more recent decades. Using the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study (ONS-LS) of linked census records, it examines the evidence provided by its 10-year migration indicator, with particular attention to a comparison of the first and latest decades available, 1971-1981 and 2001-2011. This suggests that, as in the USA, there has been a marked reduction in the level of shorter-distance (less than 10km) moving that has involved almost all types of people. In contrast to this and to US experience, however, the propensity of people to make longer-distance address changes between decennial censuses has declined much less, though the 2.6% fall between the 1970s and the 2000s may be an underestimate owing to the inclusion of moves to and from university in the latest decade. This finding is consistent with the results of a companion study which analysed data on migration between the health areas of England and Wales (Champion and Shuttleworth, 2015). There is therefore a strong case for now probing the causes of the sharp reduction in shorter-distance moving in Britain as well as the USA, as well as for investigating why the two countries differ in terms of their experience of longer-distance migration trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Tony Champion & Ian Shuttleworth, 2015. "Are People Moving Home Less? An Analysis of Address Changing in England and Wales, 1971-2011, Using the ONS Longitudinal Study," SERC Discussion Papers 0177, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0177
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Larry Long, 1991. "Residential Mobility Differences among Developed Countries," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 14(2), pages 133-147, August.
    2. Raven Molloy & Christopher L. Smith & Abigail Wozniak, 2011. "Internal Migration in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 173-196, Summer.
    3. Tony Champion & Ian Shuttleworth, 2015. "Is Internal Migration Slowing? An Analysis of Four Decades of NHSCR Records for England and Wales," SERC Discussion Papers 0176, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    4. Everett Lee, 1966. "A theory of migration," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 3(1), pages 47-57, March.
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    7. Martin Bell & Elin Charles-Edwards & Philipp Ueffing & John Stillwell & Marek Kupiszewski & Dorota Kupiszewska, 2015. "Internal Migration and Development: Comparing Migration Intensities Around the World," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(1), pages 33-58, March.
    8. Partridge, Mark D. & Rickman, Dan S. & Olfert, M. Rose & Ali, Kamar, 2012. "Dwindling U.S. internal migration: Evidence of spatial equilibrium or structural shifts in local labor markets?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 375-388.
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip S. Morrison & William A.V. Clark, 2016. "Loss aversion and duration of residence," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(36), pages 1079-1100.
    2. Tony Champion & Ian Shuttleworth, 2015. "Is Internal Migration Slowing? An Analysis of Four Decades of NHSCR Records for England and Wales," SERC Discussion Papers 0176, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal migration; Migration intensity; Long-term trend; Longitudinal Study; England and Wales; Microdata;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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