IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cep/sercdp/0070.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales

Author

Listed:
  • Janine Aron
  • John Muellbauer

Abstract

This paper presents new quarterly panel data models for county court claims and orders for mortgage possession for seven regions of England plus Wales. Different types of data on mortgage possessions are compared. The innovations include the treatment of difficult to observe variations in loan quality and shifts in forbearance policy by lenders, by common indicators based on dummy variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2011. "Modelling and Forecasting with County Court Data: Regional Mortgage Possession Claims and Orders in England and Wales," SERC Discussion Papers 0070, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0070
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/sercdp0070.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brookes, Martin & Dicks, Mike & Pradhan, Mahmood, 1994. "An empirical model of mortgage arrears and repossessions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 134-144, April.
    2. F J Breedon & M A S Joyce, 1993. "House prices, arrears and possessions: A three equation model for the UK," Bank of England working papers 14, Bank of England.
    3. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," Economics Series Working Papers 499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Hollie Cairns & Gwilym Pryce, 2005. "An Analysis of Mortgage Arrears Using the British Household Panel Survey," ERES eres2005_134, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    5. Boheim, Rene & Taylor, Mark P., 2000. "My Home Was My Castle: Evictions and Repossessions in Britain," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 287-319, December.
    6. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    2. Lazarov, Vladimir & Hinterschweiger, Marc, 2018. "Determinants of distress in the UK owner-occupier and buy-to-let mortgage markets," Bank of England working papers 760, Bank of England.
    3. Andrew Linn & Ronan C. Lyons, 2020. "Three Triggers? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(4), pages 549-575, November.
    4. Andrew Linn & Ronan C Lyons, 2018. "The Triple Trigger? Negative Equity, Income Shocks and Institutions as Determinants of Mortgage Default," Trinity Economics Papers tep0718, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Janine Aron & John Muellbauer, 2010. "Modelling and Forecasting UK Mortgage Arrears and Possessions," Economics Series Working Papers 499, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Aron, Janine & Muellbauer, John, 2016. "“Modelling and forecasting mortgage delinquency and foreclosure in the UK.”," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 32-53.
    3. Sarah Brown, 2015. "Household repayment behaviour and neighbourhood effects," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(6), pages 1169-1188, May.
    4. Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban/Regional 0509006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Kelly, Robert & McCann, Fergal, 2016. "Some defaults are deeper than others: Understanding long-term mortgage arrears," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 15-27.
    6. Orla May & Merxe Tudela, 2005. "When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach," Bank of England working papers 277, Bank of England.
    7. P. Taylor, Mark & J. Pevalin, David & Todd, Jennifer, 2006. "The psychological costs of unsustainable housing commitments," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-08, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    8. McCann, Fergal, 2014. "Modelling default transitions in the UK mortgage market," Research Technical Papers 18/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Catarina Figueira & John Glen & Joseph Nellis, 2005. "A Dynamic Analysis of Mortgage Arrears in the UK Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 42(10), pages 1755-1769, September.
    10. Jorge E. Galán & Matías Lamas, 2019. "Beyond the LTV ratio: new macroprudential lessons from Spain," Working Papers 1931, Banco de España.
    11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June.
    12. Velma Zahirovic-Herbert & Karen M Gibler, 2022. "The effect of film production studios on housing prices in Atlanta, the Hollywood of the South," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 59(4), pages 771-788, March.
    13. Suarez, Javier & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2018. "Approaching non-performing loans from a macroprudential angle," Report of the Advisory Scientific Committee 7, European Systemic Risk Board.
    14. Palmroos, Peter, 2009. "Effects of unobserved defaults on correlation between probability of default and loss given on mortgage loans," Research Discussion Papers 3/2009, Bank of Finland.
    15. Burcu Duygan-Bump & Charles Grant, 2008. "Household debt repayment behaviour: what role do institutions play?," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers QAU08-3, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    16. Christopher Mayer & Edward Morrison & Tomasz Piskorski & Arpit Gupta, 2014. "Mortgage Modification and Strategic Behavior: Evidence from a Legal Settlement with Countrywide," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(9), pages 2830-2857, September.
    17. Biswas, Arnab & Cunningham, Chris & Gerardi, Kristopher & Sexton, Daniel, 2021. "Foreclosure externalities and Vacant Property Registration Ordinances," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    18. Cristina Cella & Andrew Ellul & Mariassunta Giannetti, 2013. "Investors' Horizons and the Amplification of Market Shocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(7), pages 1607-1648.
    19. Sadayuki, Taisuke, 2018. "Measuring the spatial effect of multiple sites: An application to housing rent and public transportation in Tokyo, Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 155-173.
    20. Agarwal, Sumit & Amromin, Gene & Ben-David, Itzhak & Chomsisengphet, Souphala & Evanoff, Douglas D., 2014. "Predatory lending and the subprime crisis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 29-52.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:sercdp:0070. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://cep.lse.ac.uk/_new/publications/serc-papers/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.