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Do Industries Lead the Stock Market? Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability

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  • Hong, Harrison
  • Torous, Walter
  • Valkanov, Rossen

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. Using thirty-four industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, we establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as retail, services, commercial real estate, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to two months. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry’s ability to lead the market is correlated with its propensity to forecast various indicators of economic activity such as industrial production growth. Consistent with our gradual-information-diffusion hypothesis, these findings indicate that the market reacts with a delay to information in industry returns about its fundamentals.

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  • Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2002. "Do Industries Lead the Stock Market? Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6x49x543, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt6x49x543
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Rangan & Modise, Mampho P., 2013. "Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 825-831.
    2. Fang, Chung-Rou & You, Shih-Yi, 2014. "The impact of oil price shocks on the large emerging countries' stock prices: Evidence from China, India and Russia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 330-338.
    3. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2003. "Limited attention, information disclosure, and financial reporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(1-3), pages 337-386, December.
    4. Apergis, Nicholas & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Do structural oil-market shocks affect stock prices?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 569-575, July.
    5. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:105-117 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Hong, Harrison & Torous, Walter & Valkanov, Rossen, 2007. "Do industries lead stock markets?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 367-396, February.
    7. Lee, Bong-Soo & Rui, Oliver Meng & Wang, Steven Shuye, 2004. "Information transmission between the NASDAQ and Asian second board markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 1637-1670, July.
    8. Dhaoui, Abderrazak & Saidi, Youssef, 2015. "Oil supply and demand shocks and stock price: Evidence for some OECD countries," MPRA Paper 63556, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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