IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdf/wpaper/2023-23.html

Long-Term Nexus of Macroeconomic and Financial Fundamentals with Cryptocurrencies

Author

Abstract

In this empirical study I examine the influence of macroeconomic and financial fundamentals on cryptocurrency metrics over the long term. Through both parametric and non-parametric estimation methods, I establish that the relative value of the US dollar and the price of gold consistently exert significant impact on cryptocurrency metrics. Analyzing daily and monthly data reveals a robust statistical correlation, resulting in adverse effects on cryptocurrency prices, market capitalizations, and Bitcoin’s hash rate. These findings along with distinct features of Bitcoin resonate with the concept of Bitcoin as a digital asset analogous to physical gold, assuming a role similar to a substitute for the latter. Comparatively, Bitcoin’s hash rate demonstrates heightened market exposure when contrasted with its price counterpart. While the value of the US dollar exerts negative effects on both gold and Bitcoin, the latter’s response is notably greater. Moreover, the relationships of gold and Bitcoin with indicators such as the federal funds rate and the S&P 500 exhibit divergent patterns. While the US dollar primarily exerts downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price and the gold price primarily influences the hash rate, over time the significance of both factors, though dominant, gradually diminishes.

Suggested Citation

  • Pourpourides, Panayiotis, 2023. "Long-Term Nexus of Macroeconomic and Financial Fundamentals with Cryptocurrencies," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/23, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/23
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://carbsecon.com/wp/E2023_23.pdf
    File Function: Main Text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emiliano S Pagnotta, 2022. "Decentralizing Money: Bitcoin Prices and Blockchain Security," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(2), pages 866-907.
    2. Schilling, Linda & Uhlig, Harald, 2019. "Some simple bitcoin economics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 16-26.
    3. Rodney Garratt & Neil Wallace, 2018. "Bitcoin 1, Bitcoin 2, ....: An Experiment In Privately Issued Outside Monies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1887-1897, July.
    4. Lin William Cong & Zhiguo He & Jiasun Li & Wei Jiang, 2021. "Decentralized Mining in Centralized Pools [Concentrating on the fall of the labor share]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(3), pages 1191-1235.
    5. Angelo Corelli, 2018. "Cryptocurrencies and Exchange Rates: A Relationship and Causality Analysis," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(4), pages 1-11, October.
    6. Benigno, Pierpaolo & Schilling, Linda M. & Uhlig, Harald, 2022. "Cryptocurrencies, currency competition, and the impossible trinity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "Money and the Price Level under the Gold Standard," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 89(353), pages 13-33, March.
    8. repec:eme:mfppss:mf-02-2022-0084 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    10. Pavel Ciaian & Miroslava Rajcaniova & d’Artis Kancs, 2016. "The economics of BitCoin price formation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(19), pages 1799-1815, April.
    11. Peter C. B. Phillips & Bruce E. Hansen, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125.
    12. Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Sanches, Daniel, 2019. "Can currency competition work?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 1-15.
    13. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2023. "Monetary Policy in a World of Cryptocurrencies," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(4), pages 1363-1396.
    14. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    15. Jon Carrick, 2016. "Bitcoin as a Complement to Emerging Market Currencies," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(10), pages 2321-2334, October.
    16. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.
    17. Athey, Susan & Parashkevov, Ivo & Sarukkai, Vishnu & Xia, Jing, 2016. "Bitcoin Pricing, Adoption, and Usage: Theory and Evidence," Research Papers 3469, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Uhlig, Harald & Xie, Taojun, 2020. "Parallel Digital Currencies and Sticky Prices," CEPR Discussion Papers 15619, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2023. "A Bayesian DSGE Approach to Modelling Cryptocurrency"," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 1012-1035, December.
    3. Julián A. Parra & Carlos Arango & Joaquín Bernal & José E. Gómez & Javier Gómez & Carlos León & Clara Machado & Daniel Osorio & Daniel Rojas & Nicolás Suárez & Eduardo Yanquen, 2019. "Criptoactivos: análisis y revisión de literatura," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 92, pages 1-37, November.
    4. Jermann, Urban J., 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and Cagan’s model of hyperinflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Rodney Garratt & Maarten RC van Oordt, 2024. "Crypto Exchange Tokens," BIS Working Papers 1201, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Radwanski, Juliusz, 2021. "The Equilibrium Value of Bitcoin," MPRA Paper 110746, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Matteo Benetton & Giovanni Compiani, 2024. "Investors’ Beliefs and Cryptocurrency Prices," The Review of Asset Pricing Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 197-236.
    8. Graf von Luckner, Clemens & Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2023. "Decrypting new age international capital flows," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 104-122.
    9. Stylianos Asimakopoulos & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2019. "A New Economic Framework: A DSGE Model with Cryptocurrency," Working Papers No 07/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    10. Hilde C. Bjornland & Jamie L. Cross & Felix Kapfhammer, 2023. "The Drivers of Emission Reductions in the European Carbon Market," CAMA Working Papers 2023-53, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Prince Hikouatcha & Guillaume Tchoffo & Vatis Christian Kemezang & Jules Roger Feudjo, 2024. "An insight on non-standard asset pricing: does COVID-19 matter in the crypto-asset market?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 1-30, March.
    13. Bertrand Crettez & Lisa Morhaim, 2022. "General equilibrium cryptocurrency pricing in an OLG model," Post-Print hal-04103599, HAL.
    14. Jung, Woosung & Park, Haerang, 2024. "Common factors in the returns on cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    15. Alexis Derviz, 2019. "Coexistence of Physical and Crypto Assets in a Stochastic Endogenous Growth Model," Working Papers 2019/7, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    16. KOUAKOU, Thiédjé Gaudens-Omer, 2025. "Volatilité et régulation des cryptomonnaies : approche monétaire orthodoxe versus approche monétaire hétérodoxe [Volatility and regulation of cryptocurrencies: orthodox monetary approach versus het," MPRA Paper 123774, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Zimmerman, 2020. "Blockchain structure and cryptocurrency prices," Bank of England working papers 855, Bank of England.
    18. Daisuke Ikeda, 2020. "Digital Money as a Unit of Account and Monetary Policy in Open Economies," IMES Discussion Paper Series 20-E-15, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    19. Verdier, Marianne, 2024. "Digital payments and bank competition," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    20. Bruno Biais & Christophe Bisière & Matthieu Bouvard & Catherine Casamatta & Albert J. Menkveld, 2023. "Equilibrium Bitcoin Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 967-1014, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G19 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Other

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2023/23. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yongdeng Xu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ecscfuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.