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Mortgage Refinancing and the Marginal Propensity to Consume

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  • Pesce, Simone

    (Boston College and Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Zhang, Liang

    (Boston College)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of mortgage refinancing in shaping the estimates of marginal propensity to consume (MPC) in the United States and its implications for U.S. fiscal policy. Using household data, we find that MPCs decrease during the year of mortgage refinancing and stabilize afterwards, particularly among households with lower liquid assets, higher debt-to-income ratios, and valuable illiquid assets. The empirical evidence suggests that refinancing provides extra liquidity, reducing MPCs. We leverage on a partial equilibrium model to quantitatively assess these effects and to explore the role of home-equity extractions for fiscal policy. Our findings highlight a new dimension for the efficacy of cash transfers: targeted programs that consider higher MPCs of no-refinancers generate savings between 4 and 12% compared to non-targeted programs. These estimates imply approximately $30 billions in potential savings under the CARES Act of March 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Pesce, Simone & Zhang, Liang, 2025. "Mortgage Refinancing and the Marginal Propensity to Consume," Research Technical Papers 10/RT/25, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:10/rt/25
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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