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The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Regional Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Alfaro

  • Alejandro Cunat

  • Harald Fadinger

  • Yanping Liu

Abstract

We evaluate manufacturing firms’ responses to changes in the real exchange rate (RER) using detailed firm-level data for a large set of countries for the period 2001-2010. We uncover the following stylized facts: In export-oriented emerging Asia, real depreciations are associated with faster growth of firm-level productivity, higher sales and cash-flow, and higher probabilities to engage in R&D and export. We find negative effects for firms in other emerging economies, which are relatively more import dependent, and no significant effects for firms in industrialized economies. Motivated by these facts, we build a dynamic model in which real depreciations raise the cost of importing intermediates, affect demand, borrowing constraints and the profitability of engaging in innovation (R&D).We decompose the effects of RER changes on productivity growth across regions into these channels. We estimate the model and quantitatively evaluate the different mechanisms by providing counterfactual simulations of temporary RER movements and conduct several robustness analyses. Effects on physical TFP growth, while different across regions, are non-linear and asymmetric.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Alfaro & Alejandro Cunat & Harald Fadinger & Yanping Liu, 2019. "The Real Exchange Rate, Innovation and Productivity: Regional Heterogeneity, Asymmetries and Hysteresis," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_094, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:bon:boncrc:crctr224_2019_094
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    Cited by:

    1. Doungdao Mahakitsiri & Wisarut Suwanprasert, 2020. "Understanding the Bimodality of the Export Intensity Distribution in Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 139, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Huang, Wendi & Zhang, Weikang, 2024. "Exchange rate and corporate investment: Heterogeneous effects via the global value chain networks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    3. Benguria, Felipe & Matsumoto, Hidehiko & Saffie, Felipe, 2022. "Productivity and trade dynamics in sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Krishnan, Pramila & Gebrewolde, Tewodros & Koelle, Michael & Mengistu, Andualem Telaye, 2020. "Currency Shocks and Firm Behaviour in Ethiopia and Uganda," CEPR Discussion Papers 15524, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    6. Javier D. Donna, 2021. "Measuring long‐run gasoline price elasticities in urban travel demand," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 52(4), pages 945-994, December.
    7. Donna, Javier D., 2018. "Measuring Long-Run Price Elasticities in Urban Travel Demand," MPRA Paper 90260, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2020. "Industrial research and development and real exchange rate depreciation in a small open economy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2490-2523, September.
    9. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Alfaro, Laura & Asis, Gonzalo & Chari, Anusha & Panizza, Ugo, 2019. "Corporate debt, firm size and financial fragility in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 1-19.
    11. Bernabe Lopez‐Martin, 2022. "Firm Export Dynamics And The Exchange Rate: A Quantitative Exploration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 63(3), pages 1137-1163, August.
    12. Branstetter, Lee G. & Laverde-Cubillos, N. Ricardo, 2024. "The dark side of the boom: Dutch disease, competition with China, and technological upgrading in Colombian manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    13. Nils M. Gornemann & Pablo Guerrón-Quintana & Felipe Saffie, 2020. "Exchange Rates and Endogenous Productivity," International Finance Discussion Papers 1301, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Rodnyansky, A., 2018. "(Un)Competitive Devaluations and Firm Dynamics," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1888, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    15. Monacelli, Tommaso & Sala, Luca & Siena, Daniele, 2023. "Real interest rates and productivity in small open economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    16. Firat Demir & Arslan Razmi, 2022. "The Real Exchange Rate And Development Theory, Evidence, Issues And Challenges," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 386-428, April.
    17. Dao, Mai Chi & Minoiu, Camelia & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2021. "Corporate investment and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    18. Deseatnicov, Ivan & Klochko, Olga, 2023. "Currency risk and the dynamics of German investors entry and exit in Russia," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    19. Yongheng Hu, 2025. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Papers 2509.15169, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2025.
    20. Ping Hua, 2020. "Real Exchange Rates and Manufacturing Industry in China," Post-Print hal-03041506, HAL.

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    JEL classification:

    • F - International Economics
    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth

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