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The effect of payments standstills on yields and the maturity structure of international debt

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  • Benjamin Martin
  • Adrian Penalver

Abstract

Payments standstills have been suggested as a tool for the resolution of financial crises in emerging markets economies. A simple model is developed here to examine the implications of standstills for yields and the maturity structure of debt. An emerging market country chooses to sell short and long-term debt to risk-neutral international investors. The key assumptions are that the level of short-term debt increases the probability of crisis, that crises have costs that spill over into the next period, and that the orderly resolution of financial crises will reduce the cost of crises. A standstill is depicted as an orderly rollover of short-term debt. Standstills have the benefit of reducing the proportion of short-term debt and so lower the probability of crisis. This comes at the cost of generally lower expected output.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin Martin & Adrian Penalver, 2003. "The effect of payments standstills on yields and the maturity structure of international debt," Bank of England working papers 184, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:184
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    File URL: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/archive/Documents/historicpubs/workingpapers/2003/wp184.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gai, Prasanna & Hayes, Simon & Shin, Hyun Song, 2004. "Crisis costs and debtor discipline: the efficacy of public policy in sovereign debt crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 245-262, March.
    2. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial crises in emerging markets: a canonical model," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    4. Andy Haldane, Bank of England & Mark Kruger, Bank of Canada, 2002. "The Resolution of International Financial Crises: Private Finance and Public Funds," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2001(Winter), pages 3-13.
    5. W.H. Buiter & A Sibert, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the International Financial Architecture," CEP Discussion Papers dp0425, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    6. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2000. "Sovereign Liquidity Crises: The Strategic Case for a Payments Standstill," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 335-362, January.
    7. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Nouriel Roubini, 2001. "The Role of Industrial Country Policies in Emerging Market Crises," NBER Working Papers 8634, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Michael P. Dooley, 2000. "Can Output Losses Following International Financial Crises be Avoided?," NBER Working Papers 7531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Buiter, Willem H. & Sibert, Anne, 1999. "UDROP: A Small Contribution to the New International Financial Architecture," CEPR Discussion Papers 2138, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 14-23.
    11. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," NBER Working Papers 6606, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Guimaraes, Bernardo & Roubini, Nouriel, 2006. "International lending of last resort and moral hazard: A model of IMF's catalytic finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 441-471, April.
    2. Aitor Erce-Domínguez, 2006. "Using standstills to manage sovereign debt crises," Working Papers 0636, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.

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