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Capital flows to emerging markets


  • Adrian Penalver


Capital flows to emerging market economies have occurred in cycles, with booms in lending often followed by financial crises. Economic theory, though, has had little to say on the optimal rate at which capital should flow. In this paper a model due to Barro, Mankiw and Sala-i-Martin is extended to make it more appropriate for analysis of emerging market economies, and optimal capital flows based on an estimated Barro-style conditional convergence growth equation are calculated. Flows derived from the model are lower than actually observed over the estimation period (1988-97) but the results are sensitive to the parameters chosen.

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  • Adrian Penalver, 2003. "Capital flows to emerging markets," Bank of England working papers 183, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:183

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    2. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    3. Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters,in: Developing Country Debt and the World Economy, pages 225-236 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
      • Peter H. Lindert & Peter J. Morton, 1989. "How Sovereign Debt Has Worked," NBER Chapters,in: Developing Country Debt and Economic Performance, Volume 1: The International Financial System, pages 39-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    5. repec:cup:apsrev:v:91:y:1997:i:03:p:531-551_21 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    7. Levine, Ross & Renelt, David, 1992. "A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 942-963, September.
    8. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    9. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Growth and External Debt," CEPR Discussion Papers 778, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    11. Hoggarth, Glenn & Reis, Ricardo & Saporta, Victoria, 2002. "Costs of banking system instability: Some empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 825-855, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beatriz Gaitan & Bernd Lucke, 2007. "The Barcelona initiative and the importance of NTBs: a dynamic CGE-analysis for Syria," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 33-59, April.

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