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The effects of financial development in the short and long run

  • Scott Fulford

    ()

    (Boston College)

Although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth, empirical studies have produced contradictory results. One problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects. I show that introducing credit creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially, but eventually reduces mean con- sumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth. Using new consistent consump- tion data, my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural India increased consumption initially and reduced poverty, but consumption later fell and poverty rose.

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Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 741.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2010
Date of revision: 31 May 2011
Publication status: published as "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India", 2013. Journal of Development Economics 104, 56-72
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:741
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  1. Greenwood, J. & Jovanovic, B., 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, And The Distribution Of Income," University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations Working Papers 9002, University of Western Ontario, The Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations.
  2. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
  3. Beatriz Armendariz & Jonathan Morduch, 2007. "The Economics of Microfinance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262512017, March.
  4. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2007. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," Working Papers 108, Center for Global Development.
  5. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2002. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(1), pages 149-185.
  6. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 1993. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 60(1), pages 35-52.
  7. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2003. "Do rural banks matter? evidence from the Indian social banking experiment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2244, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Jonathan A. Parker, 1999. "Consumption Over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7271, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-91, May.
  10. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
  11. Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert M., 2003. "Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3014, The World Bank.
  12. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2005. "Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 263-286.
  13. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Discussion Papers 911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  14. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Valerie R. Bencivenga & Bruce D. Smith, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209.
  16. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Gertler, Paul & Levine, David I. & Moretti, Enrico, 2003. "Do Microfinance Programs Help Families Insure Consumption Against Illness?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt5811j217, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  18. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  19. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2003. "Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth; A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 03/193, International Monetary Fund.
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