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The effects of financial development in the short and long run

  • Scott Fulford

    ()

    (Boston College)

Although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth, empirical studies have produced contradictory results. One problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects. I show that introducing credit creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially, but eventually reduces mean con- sumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth. Using new consistent consump- tion data, my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural India increased consumption initially and reduced poverty, but consumption later fell and poverty rose.

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Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 741.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2010
Date of revision: 31 May 2011
Publication status: published as "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India", 2013. Journal of Development Economics 104, 56-72
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:741
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  1. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
  2. Paul Gertler & David I. Levine & Enrico Moretti, 2003. "Do Microfinance Programs Help Families Insure Consumption Against Illness?," Development and Comp Systems 0303004, EconWPA.
  3. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
  4. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1989. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 3189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Townsend, Robert M, 1994. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(3), pages 539-91, May.
  7. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
  8. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Andrew F. Newman, 1990. "Occupational Choice and the Process of Development," Discussion Papers 911, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  9. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2003. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," STICERD - Development Economics Papers - From 2008 this series has been superseded by Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers 40, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  10. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  11. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2003. "Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth; A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation," IMF Working Papers 03/193, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Harounan Kazianga & Christopher Udry, 2004. "Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso," Working Papers 898, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  14. Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert M., 2003. "Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3014, The World Bank.
  15. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2006. "Expanding credit access: Using randomized supply decisions to estimate the impacts," Natural Field Experiments 00281, The Field Experiments Website.
  16. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2005. "Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 263-286.
  17. Beatriz Armendariz & Jonathan Morduch, 2007. "The Economics of Microfinance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262512017, June.
  18. Oded Galor & Joseph Zeira, 2013. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2013-12, Brown University, Department of Economics.
  19. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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