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The effects of financial development in the short and long run

  • Scott Fulford

    ()

    (Boston College)

Although many view financial access as a means of reducing poverty or increasing growth, empirical studies have produced contradictory results. One problem is that most studies cover only a short time frame and do not consider dynamic effects. I show that introducing credit creates a boom in consumption and reduces poverty initially, but eventually reduces mean con- sumption because credit substitutes for precautionary wealth. Using new consistent consump- tion data, my empirical findings show that increased access to bank branches in rural India increased consumption initially and reduced poverty, but consumption later fell and poverty rose.

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Paper provided by Boston College Department of Economics in its series Boston College Working Papers in Economics with number 741.

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Date of creation: 15 Jun 2010
Date of revision: 31 May 2011
Publication status: published as "The effects of financial development in the short and long run: Theory and evidence from India", 2013. Journal of Development Economics 104, 56-72
Handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:741
Contact details of provider: Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA
Phone: 617-552-3670
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Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
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  1. Robin Burgess & Rohini Pande, 2004. "Do Rural Banks Matter? Evidence from the Indian Social Banking Experiment," The Centre for Market and Public Organisation 04/104, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  2. Shahidur R. Khandker, 2005. "Microfinance and Poverty: Evidence Using Panel Data from Bangladesh," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 263-286.
  3. Dean Karlan & Jonathan Zinman, 2010. "Expanding Credit Access: Using Randomized Supply Decisions to Estimate the Impacts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 433-464, January.
  4. Bencivenga, Valerie R & Smith, Bruce D, 1991. "Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 58(2), pages 195-209, April.
  5. Christopher D. Carroll, 1996. "Buffer-Stock Saving and the Life Cycle/Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 5788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Harounan Kazianga & Christopher Udry, 2004. "Consumption Smoothing? Livestock, Insurance and Drought in Rural Burkina Faso," Working Papers 898, Economic Growth Center, Yale University.
  8. Gine, Xavier & Townsend, Robert M., 2003. "Evaluation of financial liberalization : a general equilibrium model with constrained occupation choice," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3014, The World Bank.
  9. David B. Gross & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2001. "Do Liquidity Constraints and Interest Rates Matter for Consumer Behavior? Evidence from Credit Card Data," NBER Working Papers 8314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Robert M. Townsend & Kenichi Ueda, 2006. "Financial Deepening, Inequality, and Growth: A Model-Based Quantitative Evaluation -super-1," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(1), pages 251-293.
  11. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Parker, Jonathan A, 2000. "Consumption Over the Life-Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 2345, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  12. Christopher D. Carroll, 1992. "The Buffer-Stock Theory of Saving: Some Macroeconomic Evidence," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(2), pages 61-156.
  13. Galor, Oded & Zeira, Joseph, 1988. "Income Distribution and Macroeconomics," MPRA Paper 51644, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Sep 1989.
  14. Joseph P. Kaboski & Robert M. Townsend, 2012. "The Impact of Credit on Village Economies," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 98-133, April.
  15. Jeremy Greenwood & Boyan Jovanovic, 1989. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," NBER Working Papers 3189, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Kazianga, Harounan & Udry, Christopher, 2006. "Consumption smoothing? Livestock, insurance and drought in rural Burkina Faso," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 413-446, April.
  17. Paul Gertler & David I. Levine & Enrico Moretti, 2009. "Do microfinance programs help families insure consumption against illness?," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(3), pages 257-273.
  18. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934 Elsevier.
  19. Beatriz Armendariz & Jonathan Morduch, 2007. "The Economics of Microfinance," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262512017, June.
  20. Townsend, R.M., 1991. "Risk and Insurance in Village India," University of Chicago - Economics Research Center 91-3, Chicago - Economics Research Center.
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