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The long-run exchange rate for NOK: a BEER approach

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  • Geir E. Alstad

    () (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

This paper investigates a long-run relation for the trade weighted NOK exchange rate. I find that the NOK Trade Weighted Index (TWI) cointegrates with the real oil price, the price differential and the real interest differential. The paper documents a long-run solution for the TWI. The paper’s main contribution is that the analysis is based on a test for cointegration that is robust to mixed orders of integration in the data. The estimated long-run relation can be considered a benchmark for the nominal exchange rate. This interpretation allows the model to be used when analysing deviations of the nominal exchange rate from the model consistent level. The model is part of the suit of simple cross check models used when analysing the exchange rate in Norges Bank. I also find that the long-run relation is robust to the recent problems in the financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Geir E. Alstad, 2010. "The long-run exchange rate for NOK: a BEER approach," Working Paper 2010/19, Norges Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2010_19
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    File URL: http://www.norges-bank.no/en/Published/Papers/Working-Papers/2010/WP-201019/
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J., 1999. "Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Long-run Relationships," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9907, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    3. Roger Bjørnstad & Eilev S. Jansen, 2007. "The NOK/euro exhange rate after inflation targeting: The interest rate rules," Discussion Papers 501, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    4. Qaisar Farooq Akram, 2000. "When Does the Oil Price Affect the Norwegian Exchange Rate?," Economics Series Working Papers 31, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    5. Hilde C Bjørnland & Håvard Hungnes, 2008. "The Commodity Currency Puzzle," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-30, May.
    6. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    7. Juselius, Katarina, 2006. "The Cointegrated VAR Model: Methodology and Applications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199285679.
    8. Akram, Q.F., 2000. "PPP Despite Real Shocks: an Empirical Analysis of the Norwegian Real Exchange Rate," Economics Series Working Papers 9930, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103.
    10. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Time-Series Models; Financial Econometrics; Foreign Exchange;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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