IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Un análisis de riesgo de crédito de las empresas del sector real y sus determinantes

  • Javier Gutiérrez Rueda

    ()

En la literatura se considera al riesgo de crédito como una de las principales fuentes de vulnerabilidad para el sistema financiero, por lo que su correcta medición resulta de vital importancia tanto para el sistema como para los agentes que hacen parte del mercado de crédito. Este documento tiene como objetivo identificar los determinantes del riesgo de crédito a través del estudio de la probabilidad de que una empresa incumpla con el pago de sus créditos. El análisis se realiza para el periodo comprendido entre 1998 y 2007. Siguiendo los hallazgos de la literatura relacionada con este tema, se emplea un modelo Probit Heteroscedástico con efectos no lineales, el cual muestra que la rentabilidad, la liquidez y el endeudamiento son los principales determinantes de este incumplimiento. Adicionalmente, se utiliza un modelo de regresión por cuantiles para identificar los efectos de los factores macroeconómicos sobre dicha probabilidad. Los resultados de este análisis indican que el impacto de estos factores varían a lo largo de la distribución de default y que estos tienen un mayor efecto sobre los deudores más riesgosos. Estos ejercicios se complementan con un análisis de sensibilidad, el cual evidencia la vulnerabilidad de los intermediarios de crédito ante cambios en el ritmo de crecimiento del la economía.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/documentos/publicaciones/report_estab_finan/2010/Probabilidad_default.pdf
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found. If this is indeed the case, please notify (Camilo Millán)


Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Temas de Estabilidad Financiera with number 046.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:046
Contact details of provider: Postal: Cra 7 # 14-78 Piso 7
Phone: (57-1) 3431111
Fax: (57-1) 2841686
Web page: http://www.banrep.gov.co/publicaciones/pub_es_fin.htm
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Oscar Martínez, 2003. "Determinantes De Fragilidad En Las Empresas Colombianas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002300, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Javier Gutiérrez Rueda & Diego M. Vásquez E., . "Un Análisis de Cointegración para el Riesgo de Crédito," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 035, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Nancy Eugenia Zamudio Gómez, 2007. "Determinantes de la Probabilidad de Incumplimiento de las Empresas Colombianas," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004292, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  5. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  6. Gabriel Jiménez & Jesús Saurina, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0414, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. John Freebairn & Bill Griffiths, 2006. "Introduction," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(s1), pages S1-S1, 09.
  8. Merxe Tudela & Garry Young, 2003. "A Merton-model approach to assessing the default risk of UK public companies," Bank of England working papers 194, Bank of England.
  9. Heckman, James J, 1979. "Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(1), pages 153-61, January.
  10. Diana Bonfim, 2006. "Credit Risk Drivers: Evaluating the Contribution of Firm Level Information and of Macroeconomic Dynamics," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Arnab Bhattacharjee & Chris Higson & Sean Holly & Paul Kattuman, 2007. "Macroeconomic Conditions and Business Exit: Determinants of Failures and Acquisitions of UK Firms," CDMA Working Paper Series 200713, Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis.
  12. Philip Bunn & Victoria Redwood, 2003. "Company accounts based modelling of business failures and the implications for financial stability," Bank of England working papers 210, Bank of England.
  13. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
  14. Glenn Hoggarth & Steffen Sorensen & Lea Zicchino, 2005. "Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach," Bank of England working papers 282, Bank of England.
  15. Cornelißen, Thomas, 2005. "Standard errors of marginal effects in the heteroskedastic probit model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-320, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  16. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521626019 is not listed on IDEAS
  17. Pagan, Adrian & Vella, Frank, 1989. "Diagnostic Tests for Models Based on Individual Data: A Survey," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 4(S), pages S29-59, Supplemen.
  18. Jimenez, Gabriel & Saurina, Jesus, 2004. "Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2191-2212, September.
  19. Andrew Benito & Francisco Javier Delgado & Jorge Martínez Pagés, 2004. "A synthetic indicator of financial pressure for spanish firms," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0411, Banco de Espa�a.
  20. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521622769 is not listed on IDEAS
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:temest:046. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Camilo Millán)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.