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Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas

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  • Oscar Martínez A.

    ()

Abstract

Una de las mayores amenazas para toda empresa es caer en un estado de insolvencia. Este tipo de amenaza a la estabilidad financiera de las empresas es relevante no solo para inversionistas y empleados, sino también para prestamistas del sector financiero, auditores y autoridades reguladoras entre otros. Usando técnicas de regresión probit este estudio desarrolla un modelo en el que se identifican las variables relevantes para pronosticar el estrés o fragilidad financiera de las empresas en Colombia en el año 2001. A partir de los estados financieros que 9000 empresas reportaron en el año 2000, el modelo identificó correctamente al 82% de las empresas frágiles y no frágiles. Los resultados confirman la importancia de los indicadores de rentabilidad, endeudamiento y liquidez en la solvencia presentada por las empresas, puntualmente la utilidad antes de impuestos sobre activo, obligaciones financieras sobre activo y disponible sobre activo respectivamente.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Martínez A., 2003. "Determinantes de Fragilidad en las Empresas Colombianas," Borradores de Economia 259, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:259
    as

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    File URL: http://repositorio.banrep.gov.co/bitstream/handle/20.500.12134/5277/be_259.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Platt, Harlan D. & Platt, Marjorie B., 1991. "A note on the use of industry-relative ratios in bankruptcy prediction," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1183-1194, December.
    2. Lennox, Clive, 1999. "Identifying failing companies: a re-evaluation of the logit, probit and DA approaches," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 347-364, July.
    3. Harris, Milton & Raviv, Artur, 1991. " The Theory of Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 297-355, March.
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    5. Harlan Platt & Marjorie Platt, 2002. "Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 26(2), pages 184-199, June.
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    7. Sunti Tirapat & Aekkachai Nittayagasetwat, 1999. "An Investigation of Thai Listed Firms' Financial Distress Using Macro and Micro Variables," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 103-125, June.
    8. Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "Logit Versus Discriminant Analysis: A Specification Test," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 11-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fragilidad financiera; modelos probit.;

    JEL classification:

    • G33 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Bankruptcy; Liquidation
    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities

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