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Efectividad del Control a los Flujos de Capital: Un Reexamen Empírico de la Experiencia Reciente en Colombia

  • Hernán Rincón


Este trabajo utiliza una medida de los flujos de capital privado de corto plazo y variables que buscan capturar los niveles de los créditos comerciales y de las transacciones internacionales y factores de expulsión y atracción para evaluar la efectividad de los controles de capital, específicamente de un depósito no remunerado sobre los flujos de crédito externo, en el caso colombiano. Se utiliza la metodología de Johansen y Juselius la cual permite usar directamente variables no estacionarias en las estimaciones y controlar por problemas de simultaneidad. La conclusión principal es que los controles han sido efectivos en disminuir los flujos de capital de corto plazo. La evidencia resalta también el papel jugado por factores de expulsión y atracción en la determinación de los flujos de crédito externo y muestra que la hipótesis de paridad descubierta de interés, ajustada por una prima de riesgo, no es satisfecha por los datos.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 132.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:132
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  1. Salvador Valdés-Prieto & Marcelo Soto, 1998. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls: Theory and Evidence from Chile," Empirica, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 133-164, January.
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  3. Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 1992. "Identification of the Long-Run and the Short-Run Structure: An Application to the ISLM Model," Discussion Papers 92-04, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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  9. Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
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  12. Barry Eichengreen, James Tobin, and Charles Wyplosz., 1994. "Two Cases for Sand in the Wheels of International Finance," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-045, University of California at Berkeley.
  13. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1974. "Spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(2), pages 111-120, July.
  14. Owen Evens & Peter J. Quirk, 1995. "Capital Account Convertibility: Review of Experience and Implications for IMF Policies," IMF Occasional Papers 131, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing The Short And Long Run Exchange Rate Effects On The Trade Balance: The Case Of Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, June.
  16. Mark Taylor, 1987. "Risk premia and foreign exchange: A multiple time series approach to testing uncovered interest-rate parity," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 123(4), pages 579-591, December.
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  18. MacDonald, Ronald & Torrance, Thomas S, 1990. "Expectations Formation and Risk in Four Foreign Exchange Markets," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 544-61, July.
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