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Testing The Short-And- Long.Run Exchange Rate Effects On Trade Balance: The Case Of Colombia

Author

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  • Hernán Rincón C.

Abstract

This paper examines the role of exchange rates in determining the short-and-long-run trade balance behavior for Colombia. Conventional wisdom says that a nominal devaluation improves the trade balance. This conjecture is rooted in the Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler (BRM) and Marshall- Lerner (ML) conditions. Empirically, the evidence for both developed and developing countries has been inconsistent in either rejecting or supporting the BRM or ML conditions. This paper tests these two conditions. It uses a regression model formulation which includes income and money so that the monetary and absorption approaches to the balance of payments are also examined. The econometric procedure used is the Johansen and Juselius’ approach to estimation of multivariate cointegration systems. The main result is that exchange rates do play a role in determining the short-and-long-run behavior of the Colombian trade balance. Moreover, devaluation improves the trade balance, which is consistent with the BRM or ML conditions. The results show also that the long-run effect of an exchange rate devaluation on the trade balance is enhanced if accompanied by reduction in the money stock and/or an increase in income. The findings with respect to income and money variables did not uniformly reject or accept hypotheses from the absorption or monetary approaches either for the short run or the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Hernán Rincón C., 1999. "Testing The Short-And- Long.Run Exchange Rate Effects On Trade Balance: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3561, Banco de la Republica.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003561
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    Cited by:

    1. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    2. Hernán Rincón, 2000. "Efectividad del control a los flujos de capital: Un reexamen empírico de la experiencia reciente en Colombia," Revista de Economía del Rosario, Universidad del Rosario, February.
    3. Hernán Rincón & Édgar Caicedo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through effects: A disaggregate analysis of Colombian imports of manufactured goods," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(54), pages 90-121, June.
    4. Leonardo Villar & Hernán Rincón, 2000. "The Colombian Economy in the nineties: Capital Flows and Foreign Exchange Regimes," Borradores de Economia 149, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Devaluation;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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