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Efectos fiscales y macroeconómicos de diferentes riesgos del sistema de salud

Author

Listed:
  • Luis E. Arango
  • Jesús Alonso Botero-García
  • Daniela Gallo
  • Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra

Abstract

En este artículo se evalúan los efectos fiscales y macroeconómicos de algunos riesgos que enfrenta el sistema de salud como los cambios en los patrones demográficos y de morbilidad, las nuevas tecnologías médicas, las ineficiencias en el sistema y la estructura del mercado laboral. Estos factores representan un desafío para la sostenibilidad fiscal del sistema de salud, ya que requieren un aumento de los recursos públicos y fuentes permanentes de financiamiento. El análisis se realiza utilizando un Modelo de Equilibrio General Computable (MEGC). Según el estudio, se estima que en 2030 se requerirá un 1,91% adicional del PIB en recursos públicos en comparación con 2022. Sin embargo, si el país logra aumentar el crecimiento económico y la formalización laboral se podrían reducir las presiones fiscales. Mejorar la eficiencia en el uso de los recursos disponibles y aumentar la productividad también contribuirían a reducir la necesidad de recursos fiscales y mejorar el bienestar de la población. **** Abstract: This paper evaluates the fiscal and macroeconomic effects of some risks faced by the health system. These comprise changes in demographic and morbidity patterns, new medical technologies, inefficiencies in the system and the structure of the labor market. These factors represent a challenge for the fiscal sustainability of the health system since they require an increase in public resources and permanent sources of financing. The analysis is carried out using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGEM). According to the study, it is estimated that in 2030 an additional 1.91% of GDP will be required in public resources compared to 2022. However, if the country can increase economic growth and labor formalization, fiscal pressures could be reduced. Improving efficiency in the use of available resources and increasing productivity would also contribute to reducing the need for fiscal resources and improving the well-being of the population.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis E. Arango & Jesús Alonso Botero-García & Daniela Gallo & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra, 2023. "Efectos fiscales y macroeconómicos de diferentes riesgos del sistema de salud," Borradores de Economia 1258, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1258
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1258
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Informality and Development," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 109-126, Summer.
    2. Carolina Crispin-Fory & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Diego Alexander Restrepo-Tobón & Diego Vásquez-Escobar, 2023. "Eficiencia y solidez financiera de las Instituciones prestadoras de Servicio de Salud (IPS) en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1248, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Luis E. Arango & Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre & Jhorland Ayala-García & Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Jesús Alonso Botero-García & Carolina Crispin-Fory & Manuela Cardona & Daniel, 2023. "Aspectos financieros y fiscales del sistema de salud en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 106, pages 1-92, October.
    4. Clark Granger & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Giselle Tatiana Silva-Samudio, 2023. "Financiamiento del Sistema de Salud en Colombia: Fuentes y usos," Borradores de Economia 1233, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
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    9. Omar Chisari & Javier Maquieyra & Sebastian Miller, 2012. "Manual sobre Modelos de Equilibrio General Computado para Economías de LAC con Énfasis en el Análisis Económico del Cambio Climático," Research Department Publications 4802, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Luis E. Arango & Oscar Iván Ávila-Montealegre & Jhorland Ayala-García & Leonardo Bonilla-Mejía & Jesús Alonso Botero-García & Carolina Crispin-Fory & Manuela Cardona & Daniel, 2023. "Aspectos financieros y fiscales del sistema de salud en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 106, pages 1-92, October.
    2. Clark Granger & Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Giselle Tatiana Silva-Samudio, 2023. "Financiamiento del Sistema de Salud en Colombia: Fuentes y usos," Borradores de Economia 1233, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Ana María Iregui-Bohórquez & Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Diana Estefanía Pinilla-Alarcón & María Teresa Ramírez-Giraldo, 2023. "Evolución y carga financiera de las Enfermedades Crónicas no Transmisibles en Colombia: 2010-2021," Borradores de Economia 1234, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financiamiento sistema de salud; modelos de equilibrio general; elasticidad de sustitución; déficit fiscal; Healthcare financing; general equilibrium models; elasticity of substitution; fiscal deficit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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