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Los Equilibrios Macroeconómicos y el Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano

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  • Salomón Kalmanovitz

Abstract

El Banco Central tiene su mayor impacto en la macroeconom�a al determinar la oferta de dinero primario. De su cruce con la demanda por base monetaria se deriva cierta tasa de inter�s a la vista que se transmite con rezagos a los mercados monetarios de mayor plazo y conduce a la econom�a por una senda de expansi�n o contracci�n, en tanto la oferta de cr�dito apuntala la demanda por bienes durables, vivienda y financia nuevas inversiones o su disminuci�n las aletarga.2 Con todo, la tasa de inter�s tiene sus propios determinantes, entre otros, la oferta de ahorro financiero y el nivel de riesgo que experimentan los agentes frente a las instituciones financieras o frente a la moneda del pa�s. Este precio del dinero es entonces susceptible a las expectativas que tengan los agentes sobre el futuro y sobre la econom�a. Por lo tanto, la autoridad monetaria puede estar lejos de controlar todas las variables que inciden en la determinaci�n de las tasas de inter�s. La tasa de inter�s debe ser compatible con otros equilibrios macroecon�micos: si es muy baja, por ejemplo, puede conducir a un exceso de actividad y a profundizar el desequilibrio externo del pa�s por la v�a del aumento de importaciones y una salida de capital o si es muy alta puede atraer capital externo y propiciar una revaluaci�n de la moneda. En pa�ses en desarrollo es frecuente encontrar que los pol�ticos se impacientan con el ritmo de expansi�n que lleva la econom�a o por la renuencia del sector privado a pagar impuestos y tienden a presionar por una mayor oferta monetaria que financie mayores niveles de cr�dito y de gasto p�blico. Cuando estas presiones son exitosas, la inflaci�n se incrementa e introduce cambios frecuentes de precios relativos, genera neblina en el sistema de informaci�n y, por lo tanto, induce la toma de decisiones equivocadas por los agentes econ�micos, tiende a revaluar la tasa de cambio, descrema los ingresos fijos y produce algunos ganadores (bancos y gobierno) sin que participen en act
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Suggested Citation

  • Salomón Kalmanovitz, 1999. "Los Equilibrios Macroeconómicos y el Banco Central:El Caso Colombiano," Borradores de Economia 114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:114
    DOI: 10.32468/be.114
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. John Williamson, 1996. "Crawling Band as an Exchange Rate Regime: Lessons from Chile, Colombia and Israel, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 14.
    2. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & Natalia Salazar Ferro, 1997. "El margen de intermediación bancaria en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo.
    3. José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Inflación y Crecimiento Económico en Colombia: 1951-1992," Borradores de Economia 001, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Roberto Steiner & Adolfo Barajas & Natalia Salazar Ferro, 1997. "El margen de intermediación bancaria en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo.
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