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Otro Costo de una Inflación Perfectamente Prevista

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  • Carlos Esteban Posada

Abstract

La literatura econ�mica de los a�os 50 y 60 identific� uno de los costos de una inflaci�n perfectamente prevista: el asociado p�rdidas de bienestar ya que el uso del dinero es fuente directa o indirecta de satisfacci�n para el consumidor t�pico, as� que cuanto menor sea su demanda de dinero real, por causa de mayores tasas de inflaci�n y, por ende, de inter�s nominal, mayor ser� su sacrificio de bienestar. En los �ltimos quince a�os se han realizado nuevos aportes en la b�squeda de otros costos de la inflaci�n prevista. Esta literatura y el hecho de que la tasa de inflaci�n colombiana oscila en la actualidad entre 18% y 22% anual invitan a examinar el costo, en t�rminos de p�rdidas de capital y producto,de tener una inflaci�n prevista de la magnitud vigente en Colombia, en adici�n al costo, en t�rminos de p�rdidas de bienestar del consumidor, de una inflaci�n prevista que no tiene implicaci�n alguna sobre el aparato productivo. En este documento se expresa el argumento referido al costo sobre la actividad productiva de una inflaci�n perfectamente prevista. El argumento se refiere al caso de una peque�a econom�a abierta. Adem�s se hace el c�lculo del costo para Colombia. Si suponemos que cuando se procede a ampliar el capital productivo se incurre en costos de transacci�n, es decir, en costos adicionales al valor de la inversi�n, tanto mayores cuanto mayor sea la magnitud de la inversi�n, pero que tales costos pueden atenuarse, ceteris paribus, cuanto mayor sea el grado de liquidez de las empresas inversionistas deber�a esperarse lo siguiente de empresarios optimizadores: cuanto mayor sea la inflaci�n mayor ser� el costo de oportunidad de un cierto grado de liquidez, menor �ste, mayor, por tanto, el costo de la inversi�n prevista y, entonces, menor la magnitud de la inversi�n. La adaptaci�n al caso de una peque�a econom�a abierta implica, como m�nimo, poner en entredicho una de las conclusiones de De Gregorio (1993) seg�n la cual la tasa de inter�s real y, por ende,
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Esteban Posada, 1997. "Otro Costo de una Inflación Perfectamente Prevista," Borradores de Economia 077, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:077
    DOI: 10.32468/be.77
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    References listed on IDEAS

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