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Crisis de Inflación y Productividad Total de los Factores en Latinoamérica

  • Nelson Ramirez-Rondan

    ()

    (Central Bank of Peru)

  • Juan Carlos Aquino

    ()

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

En este trabajo se analizan los efectos de largo plazo de períodos de crisis de inflación sobre el crecimiento de la Productividad Total de los Factores (PTF) para 18 países de Latinoamérica durante el período de 1961 al 2000, utilizando la metodología de estimación de Método Generalizado de Momentos (GMM) en un modelo de datos de panel dinámico. Los resultados muestran efectos no lineales de la inflación sobre el crecimiento de la PTF, en el sentido de que períodos de altos niveles de inflación han tenido efectos negativos sobre el crecimiento la productividad (consistente con los modelos de crecimiento endógeno), mientras que períodos de bajos niveles de inflación parecen no tener efectos permanentes (tal como predice la teoría monetaria).También, encontramos efectos negativos de la volatilidad de la inflación sobre el crecimiento de la productividad. Cabe mencionar que estos resultados son robustos a una serie de variables de control, como por ejemplo choques de oferta, apertura comercial y carga del gobierno.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2005-005.

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Date of creation: Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2005-005
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