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Stimulus vs. Austerity vs. Default

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  • Gabriel Cuadra
  • Manuel Ramos Francia

Abstract

There is an ongoing debate about austerity and stimulus in the Euro zone. Moreover, given the fiscal and financial problems in the region, a default has appeared likely at times. In this context, this paper develops a dynamic stochastic quantitative model of sovereign default with fiscal policy, which captures the most salient features of the recent fiscal and debt situation in the Euro zone. In this setting, this highlights the economic nature of the decision to default, the key role of official aid in avoiding such event and, thus, improving the overall economic outlook.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2014. "Stimulus vs. Austerity vs. Default," Working Papers 2014-10, Banco de México.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2014-10
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    File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7B62400322-B12F-803D-3C2B-2C03F8511932%7D.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    2. Gabriel Cuadra & Juan Sanchez & Horacio Sapriza, 2010. "Fiscal Policy and Default Risk in Emerging Markets," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(2), pages 452-469, April.
    3. Rose, Andrew K., 2005. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 189-206, June.
    4. Richard W. Evans & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kerk L. Phillips, 2012. "Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 177-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    6. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign Default; Fiscal Policy.;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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