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Currency risk premiums redux?

Author

Listed:
  • Federico C. Nucera

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Lucio Sarno

    (University of Cambridge - Judge Business School)

  • Gabriele Zinna

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We study a large currency cross section using asset pricing methods which account for omitted-variable and measurement-error biases. First, we show that the pricing kernel includes at least three latent factors which resemble (but are not identical to) a strong U.S. "Dollar" factor, and two weak, high Sharpe ratio "Carry" and "Momentum" slope factors. Evidence for an additional "Value" factor is weaker. Second, using this pricing kernel, we find that only a small fraction of the over 100 nontradable candidate factors considered have a statistically significant risk premium – mostly relating to volatility, uncertainty and liquidity conditions, rather than macro variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Federico C. Nucera & Lucio Sarno & Gabriele Zinna, 2023. "Currency risk premiums redux?," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1415, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1415_23
    as

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    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2023/2023-1415/en_tema_1415.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    3. Tim A. Kroencke & Felix Schindler & Andreas Schrimpf, 2014. "International Diversification Benefits with Foreign Exchange Investment Styles," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(5), pages 1847-1883.
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    5. Akram, Q. Farooq & Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio, 2008. "Arbitrage in the foreign exchange market: Turning on the microscope," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 237-253, December.
    6. He, Zhiguo & Kelly, Bryan & Manela, Asaf, 2017. "Intermediary asset pricing: New evidence from many asset classes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 1-35.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    : currency risk premiums; asset pricing; omitted factors; measurement error; weak factors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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